Real-Time Surrogate Modeling for Fast Transient Prediction in Inverter-Based Microgrids Using CNN and LightGBM

Real-time monitoring of inverter-based microgrids is essential for stability, fault response, and operational decision-making. However, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations, required to capture fast inverter dynamics, are computationally intensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. This paper presents a data-driven surrogate modeling framework for fast prediction of microgrid behavior using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). The models are trained on a high-fidelity EMT digital twin dataset of a microgrid with ten distributed generators under eleven operating and disturbance scenarios, including faults, noise, and communication delays. A sliding-window method is applied to predict important system variables, including voltage magnitude, frequency, total active power, and voltage dip. The results show that model performance changes depending on the type of variable being predicted. The CNN demonstrates high accuracy for time-dependent signals such as voltage, with an $R^2$ value of 0.84, whereas LightGBM shows better performance for structured and disturbance-related variables, achieving an $R^2$ of 0.999 for frequency and 0.75 for voltage dip. A combined CNN+LightGBM model delivers stable performance across all variables. Beyond accuracy, the surrogate models also provide major improvements in computational efficiency. LightGBM achieves more than $1000\times$ speedup and runs faster than real time, while the hybrid model achieves over $500\times$ speedup with near real-time performance. These findings show that data-driven surrogate models can effectively represent microgrid dynamics. They also support real-time and faster-than-real-time predictions. As a result, they are well-suited for applications such as monitoring, fault analysis, and control in inverter-based power systems.

Cyberattack Detection in Virtualized Microgrids Using LightGBM and Knowledge-Distilled Classifiers

Modern microgrids depend on distributed sensing and communication interfaces, making them increasingly vulnerable to cyber physical disturbances that threaten operational continuity and equipment safety. In this work, a complete virtual microgrid was designed and implemented in MATLAB/Simulink, integrating heterogeneous renewable sources and secondary controller layers. A structured cyberattack framework was developed using MGLib to inject adversarial signals directly into the secondary control pathways. Multiple attack classes were emulated, including ramp, sinusoidal, additive, coordinated stealth, and denial of service behaviors. The virtual environment was used to generate labeled datasets under both normal and attack conditions. The datasets trained Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models to perform two functions: detecting the presence of an intrusion (binary) and distinguishing among attack types (multiclass). The multiclass model attained 99.72% accuracy and a 99.62% F1 score, while the binary model attained 94.8% accuracy and a 94.3% F1 score. A knowledge-distillation step reduced the size of the multiclass model, allowing faster predictions with only a small drop in performance. Real-time tests showed a processing delay of about 54 to 67 ms per 1000 samples, demonstrating suitability for CPU-based edge deployment in microgrid controllers. The results confirm that lightweight machine learning based intrusion detection methods can provide fast, accurate, and efficient cyberattack detection without relying on complex deep learning models. Key contributions include: (1) development of a complete MATLAB-based virtual microgrid, (2) structured attack injection at the control layer, (3) creation of multiclass labeled datasets, and (4) design of low-cost AI models suitable for practical microgrid cybersecurity.

Quantum Machine Learning Approaches for Coordinated Stealth Attack Detection in Distributed Generation Systems

Coordinated stealth attacks are a serious cybersecurity threat to distributed generation systems because they modify control and measurement signals while remaining close to normal behavior, making them difficult to detect using standard intrusion detection methods. This study investigates quantum machine learning approaches for detecting coordinated stealth attacks on a distributed generation unit in a microgrid. High-quality simulated measurements were used to create a balanced binary classification dataset using three features: reactive power at DG1, frequency deviation relative to the nominal value, and terminal voltage magnitude. Classical machine learning baselines, fully quantum variational classifiers, and hybrid quantum classical models were evaluated. The results show that a hybrid quantum classical model combining quantum feature embeddings with a classical RBF support vector machine achieves the best overall performance on this low dimensional dataset, with a modest improvement in accuracy and F1 score over a strong classical SVM baseline. Fully quantum models perform worse due to training instability and limitations of current NISQ hardware. In contrast, hybrid models train more reliably and demonstrate that quantum feature mapping can enhance intrusion detection even when fully quantum learning is not yet practical.