Automatic Detection of Dark Ship-to-Ship Transfers using Deep Learning and Satellite Imagery

Despite extensive research into ship detection via remote sensing, no studies identify ship-to-ship transfers in satellite imagery. Given the importance of transshipment in illicit shipping practices, this is a significant gap. In what follows, I train a convolutional neural network to accurately detect 4 different types of cargo vessel and two different types of Ship-to-Ship transfer in PlanetScope satellite imagery. I then elaborate a pipeline for the automatic detection of suspected illicit ship-to-ship transfers by cross-referencing satellite detections with vessel borne GPS data. Finally, I apply this method to the Kerch Strait between Ukraine and Russia to identify over 400 dark transshipment events since 2022.

Insurgency as Complex Network: Image Co-Appearance and Hierarchy in the PKK

Despite a growing recognition of the importance of insurgent group structure on conflict outcomes, there is very little empirical research thereon. Though this problem is rooted in the inaccessibility of data on militant group structure, insurgents frequently publish large volumes of image data on the internet. In this paper, I develop a new methodology that leverages this abundant but underutilized source of data by automating the creation of a social network graph based on co-appearance in photographs using deep learning. Using a trove of 19,115 obituary images published online by the PKK, a Kurdish militant group in Turkey, I demonstrate that an individual's centrality in the resulting co-appearance network is closely correlated with their rank in the insurgent group.