Sliding-Window Signatures for Time Series: Application to Electricity Demand Forecasting

Nonlinear and delayed effects of covariates often render time series forecasting challenging. To this end, we propose a novel forecasting framework based on ridge regression with signature features calculated on sliding windows. These features capture complex temporal dynamics without relying on learned or hand-crafted representations. Focusing on the discrete-time setting, we establish theoretical guarantees, namely universality of approximation and stationarity of signatures. We introduce an efficient sequential algorithm for computing signatures on sliding windows. The method is evaluated on both synthetic and real electricity demand data. Results show that signature features effectively encode temporal and nonlinear dependencies, yielding accurate forecasts competitive with those based on expert knowledge.

On Dataset Transferability in Active Learning for Transformers

Active learning (AL) aims to reduce labeling costs by querying the examples most beneficial for model learning. While the effectiveness of AL for fine-tuning transformer-based pre-trained language models (PLMs) has been demonstrated, it is less clear to what extent the AL gains obtained with one model transfer to others. We consider the problem of transferability of actively acquired datasets in text classification and investigate whether AL gains persist when a dataset built using AL coupled with a specific PLM is used to train a different PLM. We link the AL dataset transferability to the similarity of instances queried by the different PLMs and show that AL methods with similar acquisition sequences produce highly transferable datasets regardless of the models used. Additionally, we show that the similarity of acquisition sequences is influenced more by the choice of the AL method than the choice of the model.