High-resolution probabilistic estimation of three-dimensional regional ocean dynamics from sparse surface observations

The ocean interior regulates Earth's climate but remains sparsely observed due to limited in situ measurements, while satellite observations are restricted to the surface. We present a depth-aware generative framework for reconstructing high-resolution three-dimensional ocean states from extremely sparse surface data. Our approach employs a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) trained on sea surface height and temperature observations with up to 99.9 percent sparsity, without reliance on a background dynamical model. By incorporating continuous depth embeddings, the model learns a unified vertical representation of the ocean states and generalizes to previously unseen depths. Applied to the Gulf of Mexico, the framework accurately reconstructs subsurface temperature, salinity, and velocity fields across multiple depths. Evaluations using statistical metrics, spectral analysis, and heat transport diagnostics demonstrate recovery of both large-scale circulation and multiscale variability. These results establish generative diffusion models as a scalable approach for probabilistic ocean reconstruction in data-limited regimes, with implications for climate monitoring and forecasting.

Generative Lagrangian data assimilation for ocean dynamics under extreme sparsity

Reconstructing ocean dynamics from observational data is fundamentally limited by the sparse, irregular, and Lagrangian nature of spatial sampling, particularly in subsurface and remote regions. This sparsity poses significant challenges for forecasting key phenomena such as eddy shedding and rogue waves. Traditional data assimilation methods and deep learning models often struggle to recover mesoscale turbulence under such constraints. We leverage a deep learning framework that combines neural operators with denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to reconstruct high-resolution ocean states from extremely sparse Lagrangian observations. By conditioning the generative model on neural operator outputs, the framework accurately captures small-scale, high-wavenumber dynamics even at $99\%$ sparsity (for synthetic data) and $99.9\%$ sparsity (for real satellite observations). We validate our method on benchmark systems, synthetic float observations, and real satellite data, demonstrating robust performance under severe spatial sampling limitations as compared to other deep learning baselines.