From Baseline to Follow-Up: Counterfactual Spine DXA Image Synthesis in UK Biobank Using a Causal Hierarchical Variational Autoencoder

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is widely used for large-scale skeletal assessment, yet learning controllable and interpretable factor-specific anatomical variation remains challenging. We propose a metadata-conditioned causal hierarchical variational autoencoder (CHVAE) for causally consistent generation of anteroposterior (AP) spine DXA images from the UK Biobank (UKB). The model is trained on 3,743 raw AP spine scans from the first imaging visit and conditioned on basic participant attributes and lumbar morphometry. Causal consistency is evaluated in a baseline-to-follow-up setting using abduction--action--prediction (AAP): latent variables are abducted from baseline images, age is intervened to the repeat-imaging value, and the resulting counterfactual follow-up morphometry is compared with observed repeat-imaging measurements. Results show strong absolute-level agreement for key vertebral morphometry variables under age intervention, supporting intervention-aligned synthesis of anatomically plausible DXA images.

XAttn-BMD: Multimodal Deep Learning with Cross-Attention for Femoral Neck Bone Mineral Density Estimation

Poor bone health is a significant public health concern, and low bone mineral density (BMD) leads to an increased fracture risk, a key feature of osteoporosis. We present XAttn-BMD (Cross-Attention BMD), a multimodal deep learning framework that predicts femoral neck BMD from hip X-ray images and structured clinical metadata. It utilizes a novel bidirectional cross-attention mechanism to dynamically integrate image and metadata features for cross-modal mutual reinforcement. A Weighted Smooth L1 loss is tailored to address BMD imbalance and prioritize clinically significant cases. Extensive experiments on the data from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study show that our model outperforms the baseline models in regression generalization and robustness. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of both cross-attention fusion and the customized loss function. Experimental results show that the integration of multimodal data via cross-attention outperforms naive feature concatenation without cross-attention, reducing MSE by 16.7%, MAE by 6.03%, and increasing the R2 score by 16.4%, highlighting the effectiveness of the approach for femoral neck BMD estimation. Furthermore, screening performance was evaluated using binary classification at clinically relevant femoral neck BMD thresholds, demonstrating the model's potential in real-world scenarios.