Hybrid Deep Learning Modeling Approach to Predict Natural Gas Consumption of Home Subscribers on Limited Data

Today, natural gas, as a clean fuel and the best alternative to crude oil, covers a significant part of global demand. Iran is one of the largest countries with energy resources and in terms of gas is the second-largest country in the world. But, due to the increase in population and energy consumption, it faces problems such as pressure drops and gas outages yearly in cold seasons and therefore it is necessary to control gas consumption, especially in the residential sector, which has the largest share in Iran. This study aims to analyze and predict gas consumption for residential customers in Zanjan province, Iran, using machine learning models, including LSTM, GRU, and a hybrid BiLSTM-XGBoost model. The dataset consists of gas consumption and meteorology data collected over six years, from 2017 to 2022. The models were trained and evaluated based on their ability to accurately predict consumption patterns. The results indicate that the hybrid BiLSTM-XGBoost model outperformed the other models in terms of accuracy, with lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values, and Mean Percentage Error (MPE). Additionally, the Hybrid model demonstrated robust performance, particularly in scenarios with limited data. The findings suggest that machine learning approaches, particularly hybrid models, can be effectively utilized to manage and predict gas consumption, contributing to more efficient resource management and reducing seasonal shortages. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geographical and climatic factors in predictive modeling, as these significantly influence gas usage across different regions.