A Defect is Being Born: How Close Are We? A Time Sensitive Forecasting Approach

Background. Defect prediction has been a highly active topic among researchers in the Empirical Software Engineering field. Previous literature has successfully achieved the most accurate prediction of an incoming fault and identified the features and anomalies that precede it through just-in-time prediction. As software systems evolve continuously, there is a growing need for time-sensitive methods capable of forecasting defects before they manifest. Aim. Our study seeks to explore the effectiveness of time-sensitive techniques for defect forecasting. Moreover, we aim to investigate the early indicators that precede the occurrence of a defect. Method. We will train multiple time-sensitive forecasting techniques to forecast the future bug density of a software project, as well as identify the early symptoms preceding the occurrence of a defect. Expected results. Our expected results are translated into empirical evidence on the effectiveness of our approach for early estimation of bug proneness.

SQuaD: The Software Quality Dataset

Software quality research increasingly relies on large-scale datasets that measure both the product and process aspects of software systems. However, existing resources often focus on limited dimensions, such as code smells, technical debt, or refactoring activity, thereby restricting comprehensive analyses across time and quality dimensions. To address this gap, we present the Software Quality Dataset (SQuaD), a multi-dimensional, time-aware collection of software quality metrics extracted from 450 mature open-source projects across diverse ecosystems, including Apache, Mozilla, FFmpeg, and the Linux kernel. By integrating nine state-of-the-art static analysis tools, i.e., SonarQube, CodeScene, PMD, Understand, CK, JaSoMe, RefactoringMiner, RefactoringMiner++, and PyRef, our dataset unifies over 700 unique metrics at method, class, file, and project levels. Covering a total of 63,586 analyzed project releases, SQuaD also provides version control and issue-tracking histories, software vulnerability data (CVE/CWE), and process metrics proven to enhance Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction. The SQuaD enables empirical research on maintainability, technical debt, software evolution, and quality assessment at unprecedented scale. We also outline emerging research directions, including automated dataset updates and cross-project quality modeling to support the continuous evolution of software analytics. The dataset is publicly available on ZENODO (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17566690).

What Were You Thinking? An LLM-Driven Large-Scale Study of Refactoring Motivations in Open-Source Projects

Context. Code refactoring improves software quality without changing external behavior. Despite its advantages, its benefits are hindered by the considerable cost of time, resources, and continuous effort it demands. Aim. Understanding why developers refactor, and which metrics capture these motivations, may support wider and more effective use of refactoring in practice. Method. We performed a large-scale empirical study to analyze developers refactoring activity, leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to identify underlying motivations from version control data, comparing our findings with previous motivations reported in the literature. Results. LLMs matched human judgment in 80% of cases, but aligned with literature-based motivations in only 47%. They enriched 22% of motivations with more detailed rationale, often highlighting readability, clarity, and structural improvements. Most motivations were pragmatic, focused on simplification and maintainability. While metrics related to developer experience and code readability ranked highest, their correlation with motivation categories was weak. Conclusions. We conclude that LLMs effectively capture surface-level motivations but struggle with architectural reasoning. Their value lies in providing localized explanations, which, when combined with software metrics, can form hybrid approaches. Such integration offers a promising path toward prioritizing refactoring more systematically and balancing short-term improvements with long-term architectural goals.