TimeSynth: A Framework for Uncovering Systematic Biases in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a fundamental tool with wide ranging applications, yet recent debates question whether complex nonlinear architectures truly outperform simple linear models. Prior claims of dominance of the linear model often stem from benchmarks that lack diverse temporal dynamics and employ biased evaluation protocols. We revisit this debate through TimeSynth, a structured framework that emulates key properties of real world time series,including non-stationarity, periodicity, trends, and phase modulation by creating synthesized signals whose parameters are derived from real-world time series. Evaluating four model families Linear, Multi Layer Perceptrons (MLP), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and Transformers, we find a systematic bias in linear models: they collapse to simple oscillation regardless of signal complexity. Nonlinear models avoid this collapse and gain clear advantages as signal complexity increases. Notably, Transformers and CNN based models exhibit slightly greater adaptability to complex modulated signals compared to MLPs. Beyond clean forecasting, the framework highlights robustness differences under distribution and noise shifts and removes biases of prior benchmarks by using independent instances for train, test, and validation for each signal family. Collectively, TimeSynth provides a principled foundation for understanding when different forecasting approaches succeed or fail, moving beyond oversimplified claims of model equivalence.

Exploring the Efficacy of Modified Transfer Learning in Identifying Parkinson's Disease Through Drawn Image Patterns

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition characterized by the death of dopaminergic neurons, leading to various movement disorder symptoms. Early diagnosis of PD is crucial to prevent adverse effects, yet traditional diagnostic methods are often cumbersome and costly. In this study, a machine learning-based approach is proposed using hand-drawn spiral and wave images as potential biomarkers for PD detection. Our methodology leverages convolutional neural networks (CNNs), transfer learning, and attention mechanisms to improve model performance and resilience against overfitting. To enhance the diversity and richness of both spiral and wave categories, the training dataset undergoes augmentation to increase the number of images. The proposed architecture comprises three phases: utilizing pre-trained CNNs, incorporating custom convolutional layers, and ensemble voting. Employing hard voting further enhances performance by aggregating predictions from multiple models. Experimental results show promising accuracy rates. For spiral images, weighted average precision, recall, and F1-score are 90%, and for wave images, they are 96.67%. After combining the predictions through ensemble hard voting, the overall accuracy is 93.3%. These findings underscore the potential of machine learning in early PD diagnosis, offering a non-invasive and cost-effective solution to improve patient outcomes.