From Density Matrices to Phase Transitions in Deep Learning: Spectral Early Warnings and Interpretability

A key problem in the modern study of AI is predicting and understanding emergent capabilities in models during training. Inspired by methods for studying reactions in quantum chemistry, we present the ``2-datapoint reduced density matrix". We show that this object provides a computationally efficient, unified observable of phase transitions during training. By tracking the eigenvalue statistics of the 2RDM over a sliding window, we derive two complementary signals: the spectral heat capacity, which we prove provides early warning of second-order phase transitions via critical slowing down, and the participation ratio, which reveals the dimensionality of the underlying reorganization. Remarkably, the top eigenvectors of the 2RDM are directly interpretable making it straightforward to study the nature of the transitions. We validate across four distinct settings: deep linear networks, induction head formation, grokking, and emergent misalignment. We then discuss directions for future work using the 2RDM.

Almost Bayesian: The Fractal Dynamics of Stochastic Gradient Descent

We show that the behavior of stochastic gradient descent is related to Bayesian statistics by showing that SGD is effectively diffusion on a fractal landscape, where the fractal dimension can be accounted for in a purely Bayesian way. By doing this we show that SGD can be regarded as a modified Bayesian sampler which accounts for accessibility constraints induced by the fractal structure of the loss landscape. We verify our results experimentally by examining the diffusion of weights during training. These results offer insight into the factors which determine the learning process, and seemingly answer the question of how SGD and purely Bayesian sampling are related.