Hierarchical Light Transformer Ensembles for Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting

Accurate trajectory forecasting is crucial for the performance of various systems, such as advanced driver-assistance systems and self-driving vehicles. These forecasts allow to anticipate events leading to collisions and, therefore, to mitigate them. Deep Neural Networks have excelled in motion forecasting, but issues like overconfidence and uncertainty quantification persist. Deep Ensembles address these concerns, yet applying them to multimodal distributions remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel approach named Hierarchical Light Transformer Ensembles (HLT-Ens), aimed at efficiently training an ensemble of Transformer architectures using a novel hierarchical loss function. HLT-Ens leverages grouped fully connected layers, inspired by grouped convolution techniques, to capture multimodal distributions, effectively. Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that HLT-Ens achieves state-of-the-art performance levels, offering a promising avenue for improving trajectory forecasting techniques.