The reparameterization trick for acquisition functions

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to solving global optimization problems. Along with a surrogate model, this approach relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide the search process. Maximizing acquisition functions yields the best performance; unfortunately, this ideal is difficult to achieve since optimizing acquisition functions per se is frequently non-trivial. This statement is especially true in the parallel setting, where acquisition functions are routinely non-convex, high-dimensional, and intractable. Here, we demonstrate how many popular acquisition functions can be formulated as Gaussian integrals amenable to the reparameterization trick and, ensuingly, gradient-based optimization. Further, we use this reparameterized representation to derive an efficient Monte Carlo estimator for the upper confidence bound acquisition function in the context of parallel selection.

Identification of Gaussian Process State Space Models

The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in GPSSMs has not been satisfactorily addressed yet: system identification, i.e., learning the model. To address this challenge, we impose a structured Gaussian variational posterior distribution over the latent states, which is parameterised by a recognition model in the form of a bi-directional recurrent neural network. Inference with this structure allows us to recover a posterior smoothed over sequences of data. We provide a practical algorithm for efficiently computing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood using the reparameterisation trick. This further allows for the use of arbitrary kernels within the GPSSM. We demonstrate that the learnt GPSSM can efficiently generate plausible future trajectories of the identified system after only observing a small number of episodes from the true system.

Gaussian Processes for Data-Efficient Learning in Robotics and Control

Autonomous learning has been a promising direction in control and robotics for more than a decade since data-driven learning allows to reduce the amount of engineering knowledge, which is otherwise required. However, autonomous reinforcement learning (RL) approaches typically require many interactions with the system to learn controllers, which is a practical limitation in real systems, such as robots, where many interactions can be impractical and time consuming. To address this problem, current learning approaches typically require task-specific knowledge in form of expert demonstrations, realistic simulators, pre-shaped policies, or specific knowledge about the underlying dynamics. In this article, we follow a different approach and speed up learning by extracting more information from data. In particular, we learn a probabilistic, non-parametric Gaussian process transition model of the system. By explicitly incorporating model uncertainty into long-term planning and controller learning our approach reduces the effects of model errors, a key problem in model-based learning. Compared to state-of-the art RL our model-based policy search method achieves an unprecedented speed of learning. We demonstrate its applicability to autonomous learning in real robot and control tasks.

A Brief Survey of Deep Reinforcement Learning

Deep reinforcement learning is poised to revolutionise the field of AI and represents a step towards building autonomous systems with a higher level understanding of the visual world. Currently, deep learning is enabling reinforcement learning to scale to problems that were previously intractable, such as learning to play video games directly from pixels. Deep reinforcement learning algorithms are also applied to robotics, allowing control policies for robots to be learned directly from camera inputs in the real world. In this survey, we begin with an introduction to the general field of reinforcement learning, then progress to the main streams of value-based and policy-based methods. Our survey will cover central algorithms in deep reinforcement learning, including the deep $Q$-network, trust region policy optimisation, and asynchronous advantage actor-critic. In parallel, we highlight the unique advantages of deep neural networks, focusing on visual understanding via reinforcement learning. To conclude, we describe several current areas of research within the field.

Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Embeddings

We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features.

Neural Embeddings of Graphs in Hyperbolic Space

Neural embeddings have been used with great success in Natural Language Processing (NLP). They provide compact representations that encapsulate word similarity and attain state-of-the-art performance in a range of linguistic tasks. The success of neural embeddings has prompted significant amounts of research into applications in domains other than language. One such domain is graph-structured data, where embeddings of vertices can be learned that encapsulate vertex similarity and improve performance on tasks including edge prediction and vertex labelling. For both NLP and graph based tasks, embeddings have been learned in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, recent work has shown that the appropriate isometric space for embedding complex networks is not the flat Euclidean space, but negatively curved, hyperbolic space. We present a new concept that exploits these recent insights and propose learning neural embeddings of graphs in hyperbolic space. We provide experimental evidence that embedding graphs in their natural geometry significantly improves performance on downstream tasks for several real-world public datasets.

Probabilistic Inference of Twitter Users' Age based on What They Follow

Twitter provides an open and rich source of data for studying human behaviour at scale and is widely used in social and network sciences. However, a major criticism of Twitter data is that demographic information is largely absent. Enhancing Twitter data with user ages would advance our ability to study social network structures, information flows and the spread of contagions. Approaches toward age detection of Twitter users typically focus on specific properties of tweets, e.g., linguistic features, which are language dependent. In this paper, we devise a language-independent methodology for determining the age of Twitter users from data that is native to the Twitter ecosystem. The key idea is to use a Bayesian framework to generalise ground-truth age information from a few Twitter users to the entire network based on what/whom they follow. Our approach scales to inferring the age of 700 million Twitter accounts with high accuracy.

Accelerating the BSM interpretation of LHC data with machine learning

The interpretation of Large Hadron Collider (LHC) data in the framework of Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) theories is hampered by the need to run computationally expensive event generators and detector simulators. Performing statistically convergent scans of high-dimensional BSM theories is consequently challenging, and in practice unfeasible for very high-dimensional BSM theories. We present here a new machine learning method that accelerates the interpretation of LHC data, by learning the relationship between BSM theory parameters and data. As a proof-of-concept, we demonstrate that this technique accurately predicts natural SUSY signal events in two signal regions at the High Luminosity LHC, up to four orders of magnitude faster than standard techniques. The new approach makes it possible to rapidly and accurately reconstruct the theory parameters of complex BSM theories, should an excess in the data be discovered at the LHC.

Real-Time Community Detection in Large Social Networks on a Laptop

For a broad range of research, governmental and commercial applications it is important to understand the allegiances, communities and structure of key players in society. One promising direction towards extracting this information is to exploit the rich relational data in digital social networks (the social graph). As social media data sets are very large, most approaches make use of distributed computing systems for this purpose. Distributing graph processing requires solving many difficult engineering problems, which has lead some researchers to look at single-machine solutions that are faster and easier to maintain. In this article, we present a single-machine real-time system for large-scale graph processing that allows analysts to interactively explore graph structures. The key idea is that the aggregate actions of large numbers of users can be compressed into a data structure that encapsulates user similarities while being robust to noise and queryable in real-time. We achieve single machine real-time performance by compressing the neighbourhood of each vertex using minhash signatures and facilitate rapid queries through Locality Sensitive Hashing. These techniques reduce query times from hours using industrial desktop machines operating on the full graph to milliseconds on standard laptops. Our method allows exploration of strongly associated regions (i.e. communities) of large graphs in real-time on a laptop. It has been deployed in software that is actively used by social network analysts and offers another channel for media owners to monetise their data, helping them to continue to provide free services that are valued by billions of people globally.

Expectation Propagation in Gaussian Process Dynamical Systems: Extended Version

Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financial markets, videos or neural recordings, are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data sets requires flexible and accurate models. In this paper, we promote Gaussian process dynamical systems (GPDS) as a rich model class that is appropriate for such analysis. In particular, we present a message passing algorithm for approximate inference in GPDSs based on expectation propagation. By posing inference as a general message passing problem, we iterate forward-backward smoothing. Thus, we obtain more accurate posterior distributions over latent structures, resulting in improved predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art GPDS smoothers, which are special cases of our general message passing algorithm. Hence, we provide a unifying approach within which to contextualize message passing in GPDSs.