Probabilistic and Causal Satisfiability: Constraining the Model

We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i = x_i$, such as $P(X_1 = x_1)$ or $P(X_1 = x_1 \vee X_2 = x_2)$. The basic terms can be combined using addition (yielding linear terms) or multiplication (polynomial terms). The probabilistic satisfiability problem asks whether a joint probability distribution satisfies a Boolean combination of (in)equalities over such terms. Fagin et al. (1990) showed that for basic and linear terms, this problem is NP-complete, making it no harder than Boolean satisfiability, while Moss\'e et al. (2022) proved that for polynomial terms, it is complete for the existential theory of the reals. Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) extends the probabilistic setting with interventional and counterfactual reasoning, enriching the expressiveness of languages. However, Moss\'e et al. (2022) found that satisfiability complexity remains unchanged. Van der Zander et al. (2023) showed that introducing a marginalization operator to languages induces a significant increase in complexity. We extend this line of work by adding two new dimensions to the problem by constraining the models. First, we fix the graph structure of the underlying structural causal model, motivated by settings like Pearl's do-calculus, and give a nearly complete landscape across different arithmetics and PCH levels. Second, we study small models. While earlier work showed that satisfiable instances admit polynomial-size models, this is no longer guaranteed with compact marginalization. We characterize the complexities of satisfiability under small-model constraints across different settings.

The Hardness of Reasoning about Probabilities and Causality

We study formal languages which are capable of fully expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning and do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, from a computational complexity perspective. We focus on satisfiability problems whose instance formulas allow expressing many tasks in probabilistic and causal inference. The main contribution of this work is establishing the exact computational complexity of these satisfiability problems. We introduce a new natural complexity class, named succ$\exists$R, which can be viewed as a succinct variant of the well-studied class $\exists$R, and show that the problems we consider are complete for succ$\exists$R. Our results imply even stronger algorithmic limitations than were proven by Fagin, Halpern, and Megiddo (1990) and Moss\'{e}, Ibeling, and Icard (2022) for some variants of the standard languages used commonly in probabilistic and causal inference.

Practical Algorithms for Orientations of Partially Directed Graphical Models

In observational studies, the true causal model is typically unknown and needs to be estimated from available observational and limited experimental data. In such cases, the learned causal model is commonly represented as a partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG), which contains both directed and undirected edges indicating uncertainty of causal relations between random variables. The main focus of this paper is on the maximal orientation task, which, for a given PDAG, aims to orient the undirected edges maximally such that the resulting graph represents the same Markov equivalent DAGs as the input PDAG. This task is a subroutine used frequently in causal discovery, e. g., as the final step of the celebrated PC algorithm. Utilizing connections to the problem of finding a consistent DAG extension of a PDAG, we derive faster algorithms for computing the maximal orientation by proposing two novel approaches for extending PDAGs, both constructed with an emphasis on simplicity and practical effectiveness.

Efficient Enumeration of Markov Equivalent DAGs

Enumerating the directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of a Markov equivalence class (MEC) is an important primitive in causal analysis. The central resource from the perspective of computational complexity is the delay, that is, the time an algorithm that lists all members of the class requires between two consecutive outputs. Commonly used algorithms for this task utilize the rules proposed by Meek (1995) or the transformational characterization by Chickering (1995), both resulting in superlinear delay. In this paper, we present the first linear-time delay algorithm. On the theoretical side, we show that our algorithm can be generalized to enumerate DAGs represented by models that incorporate background knowledge, such as MPDAGs; on the practical side, we provide an efficient implementation and evaluate it in a series of experiments. Complementary to the linear-time delay algorithm, we also provide intriguing insights into Markov equivalence itself: All members of an MEC can be enumerated such that two successive DAGs have structural Hamming distance at most three.

Finding Front-Door Adjustment Sets in Linear Time

Front-door adjustment is a classic technique to estimate causal effects from a specified directed acyclic graph (DAG) and observed data. The advantage of this approach is that it uses observed mediators to identify causal effects, which is possible even in the presence of unobserved confounding. While the statistical properties of the front-door estimation are quite well understood, its algorithmic aspects remained unexplored for a long time. Recently, Jeong, Tian, and Barenboim [NeurIPS 2022] have presented the first polynomial-time algorithm for finding sets satisfying the front-door criterion in a given DAG, with an $O(n^3(n+m))$ run time, where $n$ denotes the number of variables and $m$ the number of edges of the graph. In our work, we give the first linear-time, i.e. $O(n+m)$, algorithm for this task, which thus reaches the asymptotically optimal time complexity, as the size of the input is $\Omega(n+m)$. We also provide an algorithm to enumerate all front-door adjustment sets in a given DAG with delay $O(n(n + m))$. These results improve the algorithms by Jeong et al. [2022] for the two tasks by a factor of $n^3$, respectively.

Polynomial-Time Algorithms for Counting and Sampling Markov Equivalent DAGs with Applications

Counting and sampling directed acyclic graphs from a Markov equivalence class are fundamental tasks in graphical causal analysis. In this paper we show that these tasks can be performed in polynomial time, solving a long-standing open problem in this area. Our algorithms are effective and easily implementable. As we show in experiments, these breakthroughs make thought-to-be-infeasible strategies in active learning of causal structures and causal effect identification with regard to a Markov equivalence class practically applicable.

Identification in Tree-shaped Linear Structural Causal Models

Linear structural equation models represent direct causal effects as directed edges and confounding factors as bidirected edges. An open problem is to identify the causal parameters from correlations between the nodes. We investigate models, whose directed component forms a tree, and show that there, besides classical instrumental variables, missing cycles of bidirected edges can be used to identify the model. They can yield systems of quadratic equations that we explicitly solve to obtain one or two solutions for the causal parameters of adjacent directed edges. We show how multiple missing cycles can be combined to obtain a unique solution. This results in an algorithm that can identify instances that previously required approaches based on Gr\"obner bases, which have doubly-exponential time complexity in the number of structural parameters.

Polynomial-Time Algorithms for Counting and Sampling Markov Equivalent DAGs

Counting and uniform sampling of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from a Markov equivalence class are fundamental tasks in graphical causal analysis. In this paper, we show that these tasks can be performed in polynomial time, solving a long-standing open problem in this area. Our algorithms are effective and easily implementable. Experimental results show that the algorithms significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Recovering Causal Structures from Low-Order Conditional Independencies

One of the common obstacles for learning causal models from data is that high-order conditional independence (CI) relationships between random variables are difficult to estimate. Since CI tests with conditioning sets of low order can be performed accurately even for a small number of observations, a reasonable approach to determine casual structures is to base merely on the low-order CIs. Recent research has confirmed that, e.g. in the case of sparse true causal models, structures learned even from zero- and first-order conditional independencies yield good approximations of the models. However, a challenging task here is to provide methods that faithfully explain a given set of low-order CIs. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which, for a given set of conditional independencies of order less or equal to $k$, where $k$ is a small fixed number, computes a faithful graphical representation of the given set. Our results complete and generalize the previous work on learning from pairwise marginal independencies. Moreover, they enable to improve upon the 0-1 graph model which, e.g. is heavily used in the estimation of genome networks.

Separators and Adjustment Sets in Causal Graphs: Complete Criteria and an Algorithmic Framework

Principled reasoning about the identifiability of causal effects from non-experimental data is an important application of graphical causal models. We present an algorithmic framework for efficiently testing, constructing, and enumerating $m$-separators in ancestral graphs (AGs), a class of graphical causal models that can represent uncertainty about the presence of latent confounders. Furthermore, we prove a reduction from causal effect identification by covariate adjustment to $m$-separation in a subgraph for directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs). Jointly, these results yield constructive criteria that characterize all adjustment sets as well as all minimal and minimum adjustment sets for identification of a desired causal effect with multivariate exposures and outcomes in the presence of latent confounding. Our results extend several existing solutions for special cases of these problems. Our efficient algorithms allowed us to empirically quantify the identifiability gap between covariate adjustment and the do-calculus in random DAGs, covering a wide range of scenarios. Implementations of our algorithms are provided in the R package dagitty.