Fault detection and diagnosis for the engine electrical system of a space launcher based on a temporal convolutional autoencoder and calibrated classifiers

In the context of the health monitoring for the next generation of reusable space launchers, we outline a first step toward developing an onboard fault detection and diagnostic capability for the electrical system that controls the engine valves. Unlike existing approaches in the literature, our solution is designed to meet a broader range of key requirements. This includes estimating confidence levels for predictions, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) cases, and controlling false alarms. The proposed solution is based on a temporal convolutional autoencoder to automatically extract low-dimensional features from raw sensor data. Fault detection and diagnosis are respectively carried out using a binary and a multiclass classifier trained on the autoencoder latent and residual spaces. The classifiers are histogram-based gradient boosting models calibrated to output probabilities that can be interpreted as confidence levels. A relatively simple technique, based on inductive conformal anomaly detection, is used to identify OOD data. We leverage other simple yet effective techniques, such as cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) to limit the false alarms, and threshold moving to address class imbalance in fault detection. The proposed framework is highly configurable and has been evaluated on simulated data, covering both nominal and anomalous operational scenarios. The results indicate that our solution is a promising first step, though testing with real data will be necessary to ensure that it achieves the required maturity level for operational use.

A Benchmark on Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning Prognostics

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for prognostics deep learning. This includes the state-of-the-art variational inference algorithms for Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as well as popular alternatives such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), deep ensembles (DE) and heteroscedastic neural networks (HNN). All the inference techniques share the same inception deep learning architecture as a functional model. We performed hyperparameter search to optimize the main variational and learning parameters of the algorithms. The performance of the methods is evaluated on a subset of the large NASA NCMAPSS dataset for aircraft engines. The assessment includes RUL prediction accuracy, the quality of predictive uncertainty, and the possibility to break down the total predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic parts. The results show no method clearly outperforms the others in all the situations. Although all methods are close in terms of accuracy, we find differences in the way they estimate uncertainty. Thus, DE and MCD generally provide more conservative predictive uncertainty than BNN. Surprisingly, HNN can achieve strong results without the added training complexity and extra parameters of the BNN. For tasks like active learning where a separation of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty is required, radial BNN and MCD seem the best options.