A Neighbor-based Approach to Pitch Ownership Models in Soccer

Pitch ownership models allow many types of analysis in soccer and provide valuable assistance to tactical analysts in understanding the game's dynamics. The novelty they provide over event-based analysis is that tracking data incorporates context that event-based data does not possess, like player positioning. This paper proposes a novel approach to building pitch ownership models in soccer games using the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm. Our approach provides a fast inference mechanism that can model different approaches to pitch control using the same algorithm. Despite its flexibility, it uses only three hyperparameters to tune the model, facilitating the tuning process for different player skill levels. The flexibility of the approach allows for the emulation of different methods available in the literature by adjusting a small number of parameters, including adjusting for different levels of uncertainty. In summary, the proposed model provides a new and more flexible strategy for building pitch ownership models, extending beyond just replicating existing algorithms, and can provide valuable insights for tactical analysts and open up new avenues for future research. We thoroughly visualize several examples demonstrating the presented models' strengths and weaknesses. The code is available at github.com/nvsclub/KNNPitchControl.

Forecasting Events in Soccer Matches Through Language

This paper introduces an approach to predicting the next event in a soccer match, a challenge bearing remarkable similarities to the problem faced by Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike other methods that severely limit event dynamics in soccer, often abstracting from many variables or relying on a mix of sequential models, our research proposes a novel technique inspired by the methodologies used in LLMs. These models predict a complete chain of variables that compose an event, significantly simplifying the construction of Large Event Models (LEMs) for soccer. Utilizing deep learning on the publicly available WyScout dataset, the proposed approach notably surpasses the performance of previous LEM proposals in critical areas, such as the prediction accuracy of the next event type. This paper highlights the utility of LEMs in various applications, including betting and match analytics. Moreover, we show that LEMs provide a simulation backbone on which many analytics pipelines can be built, an approach opposite to the current specialized single-purpose models. LEMs represent a pivotal advancement in soccer analytics, establishing a foundational framework for multifaceted analytics pipelines through a singular machine-learning model.

Estimating Player Performance in Different Contexts Using Fine-tuned Large Events Models

This paper introduces an innovative application of Large Event Models (LEMs), akin to Large Language Models, to the domain of soccer analytics. By learning the "language" of soccer - predicting variables for subsequent events rather than words LEMs facilitate the simulation of matches and offer various applications, including player performance prediction across different team contexts. We focus on fine-tuning LEMs with the WyScout dataset for the 2017-2018 Premier League season to derive specific insights into player contributions and team strategies. Our methodology involves adapting these models to reflect the nuanced dynamics of soccer, enabling the evaluation of hypothetical transfers. Our findings confirm the effectiveness and limitations of LEMs in soccer analytics, highlighting the model's capability to forecast teams' expected standings and explore high-profile scenarios, such as the potential effects of transferring Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi to different teams in the Premier League. This analysis underscores the importance of context in evaluating player quality. While general metrics may suggest significant differences between players, contextual analyses reveal narrower gaps in performance within specific team frameworks.

A Survey of Advanced Computer Vision Techniques for Sports

Computer Vision developments are enabling significant advances in many fields, including sports. Many applications built on top of Computer Vision technologies, such as tracking data, are nowadays essential for every top-level analyst, coach, and even player. In this paper, we survey Computer Vision techniques that can help many sports-related studies gather vast amounts of data, such as Object Detection and Pose Estimation. We provide a use case for such data: building a model for shot speed estimation with pose data obtained using only Computer Vision models. Our model achieves a correlation of 67%. The possibility of estimating shot speeds enables much deeper studies about enabling the creation of new metrics and recommendation systems that will help athletes improve their performance, in any sport. The proposed methodology is easily replicable for many technical movements and is only limited by the availability of video data.

Valuing Players Over Time

In soccer (or association football), players quickly go from heroes to zeroes, or vice-versa. Performance is not a static measure but a somewhat volatile one. Analyzing performance as a time series rather than a stationary point in time is crucial to making better decisions. This paper introduces and explores I-VAEP and O-VAEP models to evaluate actions and rate players' intention and execution. Then, we analyze these ratings over time and propose use cases to fundament our option of treating player ratings as a continuous problem. As a result, we present who were the best players and how their performance evolved, define volatility metrics to measure a player's consistency, and build a player development curve to assist decision-making.