A Non Parametric Model for the Forecasting of the Venezuelan Oil Prices

A neural net model for forecasting the prices of Venezuelan crude oil is proposed. The inputs of the neural net are selected by reference to a dynamic system model of oil prices by Mashayekhi (1995, 2001) and its performance is evaluated using two criteria: the Excess Profitability test by Anatoliev and Gerko (2005) and the characteristics of the equity curve generated by a trading strategy based on the neural net predictions. ----- Se introduce aqui un modelo no parametrico para pronosticar los precios del petroleo Venezolano cuyos insumos son seleccionados en base a un sistema dinamico que explica los precios en terminos de dichos insumos. Se describe el proceso de recoleccion y pre-procesamiento de datos y la corrida de la red y se evaluan sus pronosticos a traves de un test estadistico de predictibilidad y de las caracteristicas del Equity Curve inducido por la estrategia de compraventa bursatil generada por dichos pronosticos.

A Non Parametric Study of the Volatility of the Economy as a Country Risk Predictor

This paper intends to explain Venezuela's country spread behavior through the Neural Networks analysis of a monthly economic activity general index of economic indicators constructed by the Central Bank of Venezuela, a measure of the shocks affecting country risk of emerging markets and the U.S. short term interest rate. The use of non parametric methods allowed the finding of non linear relationship between these inputs and the country risk. The networks performance was evaluated using the method of excess predictability.

A Neural Networks Model of the Venezuelan Economy

Besides an indicator of the GDP, the Central Bank of Venezuela generates the so called Monthly Economic Activity General Indicator. The a priori knowledge of this indicator, which represents and sometimes even anticipates the economy's fluctuations, could be helpful in developing public policies and in investment decision making. The purpose of this study is forecasting the IGAEM through non parametric methods, an approach that has proven effective in a wide variety of problems in economics and finance.