Attention Deficits in Language Models: Causal Explanations for Procedural Hallucinations

Large language models can follow complex procedures yet fail at a seemingly trivial final step: reporting a value they themselves computed moments earlier. We study this phenomenon as \emph{procedural hallucination}: failure to execute a verifiable, prompt-grounded specification even when the correct value is present in context. In long-context binding tasks with a known single-token candidate set, we find that many errors are readout-stage routing failures. Specifically, failures decompose into Stage~2A (gating) errors, where the model does not enter answer mode, and Stage~2B (binding) errors, where it enters answer mode but selects the wrong candidate (often due to recency bias). In the hard regime, Stage~2B accounts for most errors across model families in our tasks (Table~1). On Stage~2B error trials, a linear probe on the final-layer residual stream recovers the correct value far above chance (e.g., 74\% vs.\ 2\% on Qwen2.5-3B; Table~2), indicating that the answer is encoded but not used. We formalize ``present but not used'' via available vs.\ used mutual information and pseudo-prior interventions, yielding output-computable diagnostics and information-budget certificates. Finally, an oracle checkpointing intervention that restates the true binding near the query can nearly eliminate Stage~2B failures at long distance (e.g., Qwen2.5-3B $0/400 \rightarrow 399/400$ at $k = 1024$; Table~8).

LLMs are Bayesian, in Expectation, not in Realization

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order $\Theta(\log n / n)$; (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk $O(n^{-1/2})$ in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as $k^* = \Theta(\sqrt{n}\log(1/\varepsilon))$ with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

Robust Multimodal Learning via Entropy-Gated Contrastive Fusion

Real-world multimodal systems routinely face missing-input scenarios, and in reality, robots lose audio in a factory or a clinical record omits lab tests at inference time. Standard fusion layers either preserve robustness or calibration but never both. We introduce Adaptive Entropy-Gated Contrastive Fusion (AECF), a single light-weight layer that (i) adapts its entropy coefficient per instance, (ii) enforces monotone calibration across all modality subsets, and (iii) drives a curriculum mask directly from training-time entropy. On AV-MNIST and MS-COCO, AECF improves masked-input mAP by +18 pp at a 50% drop rate while reducing ECE by up to 200%, yet adds 1% run-time. All back-bones remain frozen, making AECF an easy drop-in layer for robust, calibrated multimodal inference.

Multitaper Spectral Estimation HDP-HMMs for EEG Sleep Inference

Electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring of neural activity is widely used for sleep disorder diagnostics and research. The standard of care is to manually classify 30-second epochs of EEG time-domain traces into 5 discrete sleep stages. Unfortunately, this scoring process is subjective and time-consuming, and the defined stages do not capture the heterogeneous landscape of healthy and clinical neural dynamics. This motivates the search for a data-driven and principled way to identify the number and composition of salient, reoccurring brain states present during sleep. To this end, we propose a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM), combined with wide-sense stationary (WSS) time series spectral estimation to construct a generative model for personalized subject sleep states. In addition, we employ multitaper spectral estimation to further reduce the large variance of the spectral estimates inherent to finite-length EEG measurements. By applying our method to both simulated and human sleep data, we arrive at three main results: 1) a Bayesian nonparametric automated algorithm that recovers general temporal dynamics of sleep, 2) identification of subject-specific "microstates" within canonical sleep stages, and 3) discovery of stage-dependent sub-oscillations with shared spectral signatures across subjects.