Surrogate modeling for stochastic crack growth processes in structural health monitoring applications

Fatigue crack growth is one of the most common types of deterioration in metal structures with significant implications on their reliability. Recent advances in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) have motivated the use of structural response data to predict future crack growth under uncertainty, in order to enable a transition towards predictive maintenance. Accurately representing different sources of uncertainty in stochastic crack growth (SCG) processes is a non-trivial task. The present work builds on previous research on physics-based SCG modeling under both material and load-related uncertainty. The aim here is to construct computationally efficient, probabilistic surrogate models for SCG processes that successfully encode these different sources of uncertainty. An approach inspired by latent variable modeling is employed that utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) regression models to enable the surrogates to be used to generate prior distributions for different Bayesian SHM tasks as the application of interest. Implementation is carried out in a numerical setting and model performance is assessed for two fundamental crack SHM problems; namely crack length monitoring (damage quantification) and crack growth monitoring (damage prognosis).

Conditional deep generative models as surrogates for spatial field solution reconstruction with quantified uncertainty in Structural Health Monitoring applications

In recent years, increasingly complex computational models are being built to describe physical systems which has led to increased use of surrogate models to reduce computational cost. In problems related to Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), models capable of both handling high-dimensional data and quantifying uncertainty are required. In this work, our goal is to propose a conditional deep generative model as a surrogate aimed at such applications and high-dimensional stochastic structural simulations in general. To that end, a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) utilizing convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is employed to obtain reconstructions of spatially ordered structural response quantities for structural elements that are subjected to stochastic loading. Two numerical examples, inspired by potential SHM applications, are utilized to demonstrate the performance of the surrogate. The model is able to achieve high reconstruction accuracy compared to the reference Finite Element (FE) solutions, while at the same time successfully encoding the load uncertainty.