Grape Cold Hardiness Prediction via Multi-Task Learning

Cold temperatures during fall and spring have the potential to cause frost damage to grapevines and other fruit plants, which can significantly decrease harvest yields. To help prevent these losses, farmers deploy expensive frost mitigation measures, such as, sprinklers, heaters, and wind machines, when they judge that damage may occur. This judgment, however, is challenging because the cold hardiness of plants changes throughout the dormancy period and it is difficult to directly measure. This has led scientists to develop cold hardiness prediction models that can be tuned to different grape cultivars based on laborious field measurement data. In this paper, we study whether deep-learning models can improve cold hardiness prediction for grapes based on data that has been collected over a 30-year time period. A key challenge is that the amount of data per cultivar is highly variable, with some cultivars having only a small amount. For this purpose, we investigate the use of multi-task learning to leverage data across cultivars in order to improve prediction performance for individual cultivars. We evaluate a number of multi-task learning approaches and show that the highest performing approach is able to significantly improve over learning for single cultivars and outperforms the current state-of-the-art scientific model for most cultivars.

Beyond Value: CHECKLIST for Testing Inferences in Planning-Based RL

Reinforcement learning (RL) agents are commonly evaluated via their expected value over a distribution of test scenarios. Unfortunately, this evaluation approach provides limited evidence for post-deployment generalization beyond the test distribution. In this paper, we address this limitation by extending the recent CheckList testing methodology from natural language processing to planning-based RL. Specifically, we consider testing RL agents that make decisions via online tree search using a learned transition model and value function. The key idea is to improve the assessment of future performance via a CheckList approach for exploring and assessing the agent's inferences during tree search. The approach provides the user with an interface and general query-rule mechanism for identifying potential inference flaws and validating expected inference invariances. We present a user study involving knowledgeable AI researchers using the approach to evaluate an agent trained to play a complex real-time strategy game. The results show the approach is effective in allowing users to identify previously-unknown flaws in the agent's reasoning. In addition, our analysis provides insight into how AI experts use this type of testing approach, which may help improve future instantiations.

Identifying Reasoning Flaws in Planning-Based RL Using Tree Explanations

Enabling humans to identify potential flaws in an agent's decision making is an important Explainable AI application. We consider identifying such flaws in a planning-based deep reinforcement learning (RL) agent for a complex real-time strategy game. In particular, the agent makes decisions via tree search using a learned model and evaluation function over interpretable states and actions. This gives the potential for humans to identify flaws at the level of reasoning steps in the tree, even if the entire reasoning process is too complex to understand. However, it is unclear whether humans will be able to identify such flaws due to the size and complexity of trees. We describe a user interface and case study, where a small group of AI experts and developers attempt to identify reasoning flaws due to inaccurate agent learning. Overall, the interface allowed the group to identify a number of significant flaws of varying types, demonstrating the promise of this approach.