Counterfactual Explanation for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this issue is counterfactual explanation (CE), which aims to provide insights into model predictions. This study focuses on the relatively underexplored problem of generating counterfactual explanations for time series forecasting. We propose a method for extracting CEs in time series forecasting using exogenous variables, which are frequently encountered in fields such as business and marketing. In addition, we present methods for analyzing the influence of each variable over an entire time series, generating CEs by altering only specific variables, and evaluating the quality of the resulting CEs. We validate the proposed method through theoretical analysis and empirical experiments, showcasing its accuracy and practical applicability. These contributions are expected to support real-world decision-making based on time series data analysis.

Analysis of Customer Journeys Using Prototype Detection and Counterfactual Explanations for Sequential Data

Recently, the proliferation of omni-channel platforms has attracted interest in customer journeys, particularly regarding their role in developing marketing strategies. However, few efforts have been taken to quantitatively study or comprehensively analyze them owing to the sequential nature of their data and the complexity involved in analysis. In this study, we propose a novel approach comprising three steps for analyzing customer journeys. First, the distance between sequential data is defined and used to identify and visualize representative sequences. Second, the likelihood of purchase is predicted based on this distance. Third, if a sequence suggests no purchase, counterfactual sequences are recommended to increase the probability of a purchase using a proposed method, which extracts counterfactual explanations for sequential data. A survey was conducted, and the data were analyzed; the results revealed that typical sequences could be extracted, and the parts of those sequences important for purchase could be detected. We believe that the proposed approach can support improvements in various marketing activities.

Robust Counterfactual Explanations under Model Multiplicity Using Multi-Objective Optimization

In recent years, explainability in machine learning has gained importance. In this context, counterfactual explanation (CE), which is an explanation method that uses examples, has attracted attention. However, it has been pointed out that CE is not robust when there are multiple machine-learning models. These problems are important when using machine learning to make safe decisions. In this paper, we propose robust CEs that introduce a new viewpoint - Pareto improvement - and a method that uses multi-objective optimization to generate it. To evaluate the proposed method, we conducted experiments using both simulated and actual data. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is robust and useful. We believe that this research will contribute to a wide range of research areas, such as explainability in machine learning, decision-making, and action planning based on machine learning.

Diversity and Inclusion Index with Networks and Similarity: Analysis and its Application

In recent years, the concepts of ``diversity'' and ``inclusion'' have attracted considerable attention across a range of fields, encompassing both social and biological disciplines. To fully understand these concepts, it is critical to not only examine the number of categories but also the similarities and relationships among them. In this study, I introduce a novel index for diversity and inclusion that considers similarities and network connections. I analyzed the properties of these indices and investigated their mathematical relationships using established measures of diversity and networks. Moreover, I developed a methodology for estimating similarities based on the utility of diversity. I also created a method for visualizing proportions, similarities, and network connections. Finally, I evaluated the correlation with external metrics using real-world data, confirming that both the proposed indices and our index can be effectively utilized. This study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of diversity and inclusion analysis.