Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling

We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters. The method builds a transition table of historical state-to-next-position pairs and retrieves neighbors using a product kernel over spatial proximity, bearing, speed, and temporal context. Two inference modes operate over this shared representation: diversity-penalized sampling produces trajectories covering distinct plausible routes, while beam search finds the highest-likelihood path. On the TrAISformer benchmark (Danish Maritime AIS), our method achieves competitive accuracy at full data availability and dramatically outperforms the transformer in data-scarce regimes---remaining stable down to 10% of training data where TrAISformer degrades catastrophically. This enables deployment in new geographic regions from an order of magnitude less historical data, and with no GPU training.

Conditional Inference Trees and Forests for Feature Selection

Conditional inference trees (CIT) and conditional inference forests (CIF) reduce split-selection bias by testing features before choosing split thresholds, but repeated permutation tests and threshold searches can make these methods computationally expensive. We study CIT and CIF as top-$k$ feature-ranking methods for downstream prediction using real-data benchmarks, runtime ablations, and synthetic feature-recovery experiments. At a fixed node, if the features and permutation budget do not depend on the node responses, Bonferroni-corrected $+1$ Monte Carlo permutation $p$-values control nodewise rejection under the complete permutation null. CIF ranks 4th among 17 classification methods on 22 datasets and 3rd among 18 regression methods on 8 datasets. With Bonferroni correction held fixed, the CIF runtime ablations indicate that adaptive stopping and the number of thresholds searched have the largest measured effect on runtime: turning off adaptive stopping and using exact threshold search increase fitting time by 4.0--8.4$\times$ and 1.9--10.8$\times$, respectively, while downstream score changes are at most 0.011. Sparse high-$p$ simulations indicate that forest feature sampling can leave informative features out of many split decisions. Overall, the results support CIF as a top-$k$ feature-ranking method in the evaluated downstream prediction benchmarks.

Saliency Driven Imagery Preprocessing for Efficient Compression -- Industrial Paper

The compression of satellite imagery remains an important research area as hundreds of terabytes of images are collected every day, which drives up storage and bandwidth costs. Although progress has been made in increasing the resolution of these satellite images, many downstream tasks are only interested in small regions of any given image. These areas of interest vary by task but, once known, can be used to optimize how information within the image is encoded. Whereas standard image encoding methods, even those optimized for remote sensing, work on the whole image equally, there are emerging methods that can be guided by saliency maps to focus on important areas. In this work we show how imagery preprocessing techniques driven by saliency maps can be used with traditional lossy compression coding standards to create variable rate image compression within a single large satellite image. Specifically, we use variable sized smoothing kernels that map to different quantized saliency levels to process imagery pixels in order to optimize downstream compression and encoding schemes.

Enabling Decision-Support Systems through Automated Cell Tower Detection

Cell phone coverage and high-speed service gaps persist in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa, impacting public access to mobile-based financial, educational, and humanitarian services. Improving maps of telecommunications infrastructure can help inform strategies to eliminate gaps in mobile coverage. Deep neural networks, paired with remote sensing images, can be used for object detection of cell towers and eliminate the need for inefficient and burdensome manual mapping to find objects over large geographic regions. In this study, we demonstrate a partially automated workflow to train an object detection model to locate cell towers using OpenStreetMap (OSM) features and high-resolution Maxar imagery. For model fine-tuning and evaluation, we curated a diverse dataset of over 6,000 unique images of cell towers in 26 countries in eastern, southern, and central Africa using automatically generated annotations from OSM points. Our model achieves an average precision at 50% Intersection over Union (IoU) (AP@50) of 81.2 with good performance across different geographies and out-of-sample testing. Accurate localization of cell towers can yield more accurate cell coverage maps, in turn enabling improved delivery of digital services for decision-support applications.