On Predicting Post-Click Conversion Rate via Counterfactual Inference

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

Matrix Completion with Hierarchical Graph Side Information

We consider a matrix completion problem that exploits social or item similarity graphs as side information. We develop a universal, parameter-free, and computationally efficient algorithm that starts with hierarchical graph clustering and then iteratively refines estimates both on graph clustering and matrix ratings. Under a hierarchical stochastic block model that well respects practically-relevant social graphs and a low-rank rating matrix model (to be detailed), we demonstrate that our algorithm achieves the information-theoretic limit on the number of observed matrix entries (i.e., optimal sample complexity) that is derived by maximum likelihood estimation together with a lower-bound impossibility result. One consequence of this result is that exploiting the hierarchical structure of social graphs yields a substantial gain in sample complexity relative to the one that simply identifies different groups without resorting to the relational structure across them. We conduct extensive experiments both on synthetic and real-world datasets to corroborate our theoretical results as well as to demonstrate significant performance improvements over other matrix completion algorithms that leverage graph side information.

On the Fundamental Limits of Matrix Completion: Leveraging Hierarchical Similarity Graphs

We study the matrix completion problem that leverages hierarchical similarity graphs as side information in the context of recommender systems. Under a hierarchical stochastic block model that well respects practically-relevant social graphs and a low-rank rating matrix model, we characterize the exact information-theoretic limit on the number of observed matrix entries (i.e., optimal sample complexity) by proving sharp upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity. In the achievability proof, we demonstrate that probability of error of the maximum likelihood estimator vanishes for sufficiently large number of users and items, if all sufficient conditions are satisfied. On the other hand, the converse (impossibility) proof is based on the genie-aided maximum likelihood estimator. Under each necessary condition, we present examples of a genie-aided estimator to prove that the probability of error does not vanish for sufficiently large number of users and items. One important consequence of this result is that exploiting the hierarchical structure of social graphs yields a substantial gain in sample complexity relative to the one that simply identifies different groups without resorting to the relational structure across them. More specifically, we analyze the optimal sample complexity and identify different regimes whose characteristics rely on quality metrics of side information of the hierarchical similarity graph. Finally, we present simulation results to corroborate our theoretical findings and show that the characterized information-theoretic limit can be asymptotically achieved.