Interpretable Markov-Based Spatiotemporal Risk Surfaces for Missing-Child Search Planning with Reinforcement Learning and LLM-Based Quality Assurance

The first 72 hours of a missing-child investigation are critical for successful recovery. However, law enforcement agencies often face fragmented, unstructured data and a lack of dynamic, geospatial predictive tools. Our system, Guardian, provides an end-to-end decision-support system for missing-child investigation and early search planning. It converts heterogeneous, unstructured case documents into a schema-aligned spatiotemporal representation, enriches cases with geocoding and transportation context, and provides probabilistic search products spanning 0-72 hours. In this paper, we present an overview of Guardian as well as a detailed description of a three-layer predictive component of the system. The first layer is a Markov chain, a sparse, interpretable model with transitions incorporating road accessibility costs, seclusion preferences, and corridor bias with separate day/night parameterizations. The Markov chain's output prediction distributions are then transformed into operationally useful search plans by the second layer's reinforcement learning. Finally, the third layer's LLM performs post hoc validation of layer 2 search plans prior to their release. Using a synthetic but realistic case study, we report quantitative outputs across 24/48/72-hour horizons and analyze sensitivity, failure modes, and tradeoffs. Results show that the proposed predictive system with the three-layer architecture produces interpretable priors for zone optimization and human review.

A Consensus-Driven Multi-LLM Pipeline for Missing-Person Investigations

The first 72 hours of a missing-person investigation are critical for successful recovery. Guardian is an end-to-end system designed to support missing-child investigation and early search planning. This paper presents the Guardian LLM Pipeline, a multi-model system in which LLMs are used for intelligent information extraction and processing related to missing-person search operations. The pipeline coordinates end-to-end execution across task-specialized LLM models and invokes a consensus LLM engine that compares multiple model outputs and resolves disagreements. The pipeline is further strengthened by QLoRA-based fine-tuning, using curated datasets. The presented design aligns with prior work on weak supervision and LLM-assisted annotation, emphasizing conservative, auditable use of LLMs as structured extractors and labelers rather than unconstrained end-to-end decision makers.