Preserving correlations: A statistical method for generating synthetic data

We propose a method to generate statistically representative synthetic data. The main goal is to be able to maintain in the synthetic dataset the correlations of the features present in the original one, while offering a comfortable privacy level that can be eventually tailored on specific customer demands. We describe in detail our algorithm used both for the analysis of the original dataset and for the generation of the synthetic data points. The approach is tested using a large energy-related dataset. We obtain good results both qualitatively (e.g. via vizualizing correlation maps) and quantitatively (in terms of suitable $\ell^1$-type error norms used as evaluation metrics). The proposed methodology is general in the sense that it does not rely on the used test dataset. We expect it to be applicable in a much broader context than indicated here.

DA-LSTM: A Dynamic Drift-Adaptive Learning Framework for Interval Load Forecasting with LSTM Networks

Load forecasting is a crucial topic in energy management systems (EMS) due to its vital role in optimizing energy scheduling and enabling more flexible and intelligent power grid systems. As a result, these systems allow power utility companies to respond promptly to demands in the electricity market. Deep learning (DL) models have been commonly employed in load forecasting problems supported by adaptation mechanisms to cope with the changing pattern of consumption by customers, known as concept drift. A drift magnitude threshold should be defined to design change detection methods to identify drifts. While the drift magnitude in load forecasting problems can vary significantly over time, existing literature often assumes a fixed drift magnitude threshold, which should be dynamically adjusted rather than fixed during system evolution. To address this gap, in this paper, we propose a dynamic drift-adaptive Long Short-Term Memory (DA-LSTM) framework that can improve the performance of load forecasting models without requiring a drift threshold setting. We integrate several strategies into the framework based on active and passive adaptation approaches. To evaluate DA-LSTM in real-life settings, we thoroughly analyze the proposed framework and deploy it in a real-world problem through a cloud-based environment. Efficiency is evaluated in terms of the prediction performance of each approach and computational cost. The experiments show performance improvements on multiple evaluation metrics achieved by our framework compared to baseline methods from the literature. Finally, we present a trade-off analysis between prediction performance and computational costs.