Dual Accuracy-Quality-Driven Neural Network for Prediction Interval Generation

Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic predictions of deep learning models. Such PIs are useful or "high-quality'' as long as they are sufficiently narrow and capture most of the probability density. In this paper, we present a method to learn prediction intervals for regression-based neural networks automatically in addition to the conventional target predictions. In particular, we train two companion neural networks: one that uses one output, the target estimate, and another that uses two outputs, the upper and lower bounds of the corresponding PI. Our main contribution is the design of a loss function for the PI-generation network that takes into account the output of the target-estimation network and has two optimization objectives: minimizing the mean prediction interval width and ensuring the PI integrity using constraints that maximize the prediction interval probability coverage implicitly. Both objectives are balanced within the loss function using a self-adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, we apply a Monte Carlo-based approach that evaluates the model uncertainty in the learned PIs. Experiments using a synthetic dataset, six benchmark datasets, and a real-world crop yield prediction dataset showed that our method was able to maintain a nominal probability coverage and produce narrower PIs without detriment to its target estimation accuracy when compared to those PIs generated by three state-of-the-art neural-network-based methods.

Two-dimensional Deep Regression for Early Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat

Crop yield prediction is one of the tasks of Precision Agriculture that can be automated based on multi-source periodic observations of the fields. We tackle the yield prediction problem using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained on data that combines radar satellite imagery and on-ground information. We present a CNN architecture called Hyper3DNetReg that takes in a multi-channel input image and outputs a two-dimensional raster, where each pixel represents the predicted yield value of the corresponding input pixel. We utilize radar data acquired from the Sentinel-1 satellites, while the on-ground data correspond to a set of six raster features: nitrogen rate applied, precipitation, slope, elevation, topographic position index (TPI), and aspect. We use data collected during the early stage of the winter wheat growing season (March) to predict yield values during the harvest season (August). We present experiments over four fields of winter wheat and show that our proposed methodology yields better results than five compared methods, including multiple linear regression, an ensemble of feedforward networks using AdaBoost, a stacked autoencoder, and two other CNN architectures.