STEP-PD: Stage-Aware and Explainable Parkinson's Disease Severity Classification Using Multimodal Clinical Assessments

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive disorder in which symptom burden and functional impairment evolve over time, making severity staging essential for clinical monitoring and treatment planning. However, many computational studies emphasize binary PD detection and do not fully use repeated follow-up clinical assessments for stage-aware prediction. This study proposes STEP-PD, a severity-aware machine learning framework to classify PD severity using clinically interpretable boundaries. It leverages all available visits from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) and integrates routinely collected subjective questionnaires and objective clinician-assessed measures. Disease severity is defined using Hoehn and Yahr staging and grouped into three clinically meaningful categories: Healthy, Mild PD (stages 1-2), and Moderate-to-Severe PD (stages 3-5). Three binary classification problems and a three-class severity task were evaluated using stratified cross-validation with imbalance-aware training. To enhance interpretability, SHAP was used to provide global explanations and local patient-level waterfall explanations. Across all tasks, XGBoost achieved the strongest and most stable performance, with accuracies of 95.48% (Healthy vs. Mild), 99.44% (Healthy vs. Moderate-to-Severe), and 96.78% (Mild vs. Moderate-to-Severe), and 94.14% accuracy with 0.8775 Macro-F1 for three-class severity classification. Explainability results highlight a shift from early motor features to progression-related axial and balance impairments. These findings show that multimodal clinical assessments within the PPMI cohort can support accurate and interpretable visit-level PD severity stratification.

SCOPE-PD: Explainable AI on Subjective and Clinical Objective Measurements of Parkinson's Disease for Precision Decision-Making

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic and complex neurodegenerative disorder influenced by genetic, clinical, and lifestyle factors. Predicting this disease early is challenging because it depends on traditional diagnostic methods that face issues of subjectivity, which commonly delay diagnosis. Several objective analyses are currently in practice to help overcome the challenges of subjectivity; however, a proper explanation of these analyses is still lacking. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated potential in supporting PD diagnosis, existing approaches often rely on subjective reports only and lack interpretability for individualized risk estimation. This study proposes SCOPE-PD, an explainable AI-based prediction framework, by integrating subjective and objective assessments to provide personalized health decisions. Subjective and objective clinical assessment data are collected from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study to construct a multimodal prediction framework. Several ML techniques are applied to these data, and the best ML model is selected to interpret the results. Model interpretability is examined using SHAP-based analysis. The Random Forest algorithm achieves the highest accuracy of 98.66 percent using combined features from both subjective and objective test data. Tremor, bradykinesia, and facial expression are identified as the top three contributing features from the MDS-UPDRS test in the prediction of PD.