How Many Tools Should an LLM Agent See? A Chance-Corrected Answer

Before an LLM agent can use a tool, a retrieval system must decide which candidate tools to show to the agent. How long should that shortlist be? Show too many tools and the model struggles to choose. Show too few and the correct tool may not appear. Most systems apply a fixed shortlist size to every query, but no standard metric exists to evaluate whether that size was appropriate. We treat the number of tools shown to an LLM agent as the object of evaluation and we apply Bits-over-Random (BoR), a chance-corrected metric that asks whether success at a given depth is better than what random selection would achieve at that same depth. We evaluate BoR across three tool-selection benchmarks, multiple scorers, and registries ranging from 20 to 3,251 tools. We then turn the same principle into a reinforcement learning (RL) reward for choosing tool shortlist depth per query. The RL agent is deliberately simple, serving as a probe of the metric rather than a proposed system. As the shortlist grows, random chance of including the correct tool rises, so the reward naturally decreases, reducing the need for an engineered depth penalty. On BFCL (370 tools), the learned policy nearly matches the coverage of showing 50 tools ($90.3\%$ vs $90.8\%$) while presenting only 7 on average. On ToolBench (3,251 tools), a fixed shortlist of 5 tools achieves higher aggregate coverage ($64.7\%$ vs $61.9\%$) but finds nothing on hard queries (correct tool ranked 6th-20th). The BoR agent finds $16.7\%$ on those same queries by searching deeper. Downstream validation with Claude Sonnet 4.6 indicates that shorter adaptive lists also improve the LLM's ability to select the right tool: $93.1\%$ versus $87.1\%$ when always shown 5 tools, widening to $76.8\%$ vs $60.9\%$ on medium-difficulty queries where the correct tool is present but not ranked first.