DynaGen: Unifying Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning with Dynamic Subgraphs and Generative Regularization

Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (TKGR) aims to complete missing factual elements along the timeline. Depending on the temporal position of the query, the task is categorized into interpolation and extrapolation. Existing interpolation methods typically embed temporal information into individual facts to complete missing historical knowledge, while extrapolation techniques often leverage sequence models over graph snapshots to identify recurring patterns for future event prediction. These methods face two critical challenges: limited contextual modeling in interpolation and cognitive generalization bias in extrapolation. To address these, we propose a unified method for TKGR, dubbed DynaGen. For interpolation, DynaGen dynamically constructs entity-centric subgraphs and processes them with a synergistic dual-branch GNN encoder to capture evolving structural context. For extrapolation, it applies a conditional diffusion process, which forces the model to learn underlying evolutionary principles rather than just superficial patterns, enhancing its ability to predict unseen future events. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets show DynaGen achieves state-of-the-art performance. On average, compared to the second-best models, DynaGen improves the Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) score by 2.61 points for interpolation and 1.45 points for extrapolation.

Automatic Failure Attribution and Critical Step Prediction Method for Multi-Agent Systems Based on Causal Inference

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are critical for automating complex tasks, yet their practical deployment is severely hampered by the challenge of failure attribution. Current diagnostic tools, which rely on statistical correlations, are fundamentally inadequate; on challenging benchmarks like Who\&When, state-of-the-art methods achieve less than 15\% accuracy in locating the root-cause step of a failure. To address this critical gap, we introduce the first failure attribution framework for MAS grounded in multi-granularity causal inference. Our approach makes two key technical contributions: (1) a performance causal inversion principle, which correctly models performance dependencies by reversing the data flow in execution logs, combined with Shapley values to accurately assign agent-level blame; (2) a novel causal discovery algorithm, CDC-MAS, that robustly identifies critical failure steps by tackling the non-stationary nature of MAS interaction data. The framework's attribution results directly fuel an automated optimization loop, generating targeted suggestions whose efficacy is validated via counterfactual simulations. Evaluations on the Who\&When and TRAIL benchmarks demonstrate a significant leap in performance. Our method achieves up to 36.2\% step-level accuracy. Crucially, the generated optimizations boost overall task success rates by an average of 22.4\%. This work provides a principled and effective solution for debugging complex agent interactions, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable multi-agent systems.