High Rank Path Development: an approach of learning the filtration of stochastic processes

Since the weak convergence for stochastic processes does not account for the growth of information over time which is represented by the underlying filtration, a slightly erroneous stochastic model in weak topology may cause huge loss in multi-periods decision making problems. To address such discontinuities Aldous introduced the extended weak convergence, which can fully characterise all essential properties, including the filtration, of stochastic processes; however was considered to be hard to find efficient numerical implementations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric called High Rank PCF Distance (HRPCFD) for extended weak convergence based on the high rank path development method from rough path theory, which also defines the characteristic function for measure-valued processes. We then show that such HRPCFD admits many favourable analytic properties which allows us to design an efficient algorithm for training HRPCFD from data and construct the HRPCF-GAN by using HRPCFD as the discriminator for conditional time series generation. Our numerical experiments on both hypothesis testing and generative modelling validate the out-performance of our approach compared with several state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its potential in broad applications of synthetic time series generation and in addressing classic financial and economic challenges, such as optimal stopping or utility maximisation problems.

Generative Modelling of Lévy Area for High Order SDE Simulation

It is well known that, when numerically simulating solutions to SDEs, achieving a strong convergence rate better than O(\sqrt{h}) (where h is the step size) requires the use of certain iterated integrals of Brownian motion, commonly referred to as its "L\'{e}vy areas". However, these stochastic integrals are difficult to simulate due to their non-Gaussian nature and for a d-dimensional Brownian motion with d > 2, no fast almost-exact sampling algorithm is known. In this paper, we propose L\'{e}vyGAN, a deep-learning-based model for generating approximate samples of L\'{e}vy area conditional on a Brownian increment. Due to our "Bridge-flipping" operation, the output samples match all joint and conditional odd moments exactly. Our generator employs a tailored GNN-inspired architecture, which enforces the correct dependency structure between the output distribution and the conditioning variable. Furthermore, we incorporate a mathematically principled characteristic-function based discriminator. Lastly, we introduce a novel training mechanism termed "Chen-training", which circumvents the need for expensive-to-generate training data-sets. This new training procedure is underpinned by our two main theoretical results. For 4-dimensional Brownian motion, we show that L\'{e}vyGAN exhibits state-of-the-art performance across several metrics which measure both the joint and marginal distributions. We conclude with a numerical experiment on the log-Heston model, a popular SDE in mathematical finance, demonstrating that high-quality synthetic L\'{e}vy area can lead to high order weak convergence and variance reduction when using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC).