RLHGNN: Reinforcement Learning-driven Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network for Next Activity Prediction in Business Processes

Next activity prediction represents a fundamental challenge for optimizing business processes in service-oriented architectures such as microservices environments, distributed enterprise systems, and cloud-native platforms, which enables proactive resource allocation and dynamic service composition. Despite the prevalence of sequence-based methods, these approaches fail to capture non-sequential relationships that arise from parallel executions and conditional dependencies. Even though graph-based approaches address structural preservation, they suffer from homogeneous representations and static structures that apply uniform modeling strategies regardless of individual process complexity characteristics. To address these limitations, we introduce RLHGNN, a novel framework that transforms event logs into heterogeneous process graphs with three distinct edge types grounded in established process mining theory. Our approach creates four flexible graph structures by selectively combining these edges to accommodate different process complexities, and employs reinforcement learning formulated as a Markov Decision Process to automatically determine the optimal graph structure for each specific process instance. RLHGNN then applies heterogeneous graph convolution with relation-specific aggregation strategies to effectively predict the next activity. This adaptive methodology enables precise modeling of both sequential and non-sequential relationships in service interactions. Comprehensive evaluation on six real-world datasets demonstrates that RLHGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. Furthermore, it maintains an inference latency of approximately 1 ms per prediction, representing a highly practical solution suitable for real-time business process monitoring applications. The source code is available at https://github.com/Joker3993/RLHGNN.