Tractable Probabilistic Models for Investment Planning

Investment planning in power utilities, such as generation and transmission expansion, requires decade-long forecasts under profound uncertainty. Forecasting of energy mix and energy use decades ahead is nontrivial. Classical approaches focus on generating a finite number of scenarios (modeled as a mixture of Diracs in statistical theory terms), which limits insight into scenario-specific volatility and hinders robust decision-making. We propose an alternative using tractable probabilistic models (TPMs), particularly sum-product networks (SPNs). These models enable exact, scalable inference of key quantities such as scenario likelihoods, marginals, and conditional probabilities, supporting robust scenario expansion and risk assessment. This framework enables direct embedding of chance-constrained optimization into investment planning, enforcing safety or reliability with prescribed confidence levels. TPMs allow both scenario analysis and volatility quantification by compactly representing high-dimensional uncertainties. We demonstrate the approach's effectiveness through a representative power system planning case study, illustrating computational and reliability advantages over traditional scenario-based models.

Plausible Counterfactual Explanations of Recommendations

Explanations play a variety of roles in various recommender systems, from a legally mandated afterthought, through an integral element of user experience, to a key to persuasiveness. A natural and useful form of an explanation is the Counterfactual Explanation (CE). We present a method for generating highly plausible CEs in recommender systems and evaluate it both numerically and with a user study.

Bias Detection via Maximum Subgroup Discrepancy

Bias evaluation is fundamental to trustworthy AI, both in terms of checking data quality and in terms of checking the outputs of AI systems. In testing data quality, for example, one may study a distance of a given dataset, viewed as a distribution, to a given ground-truth reference dataset. However, classical metrics, such as the Total Variation and the Wasserstein distances, are known to have high sample complexities and, therefore, may fail to provide meaningful distinction in many practical scenarios. In this paper, we propose a new notion of distance, the Maximum Subgroup Discrepancy (MSD). In this metric, two distributions are close if, roughly, discrepancies are low for all feature subgroups. While the number of subgroups may be exponential, we show that the sample complexity is linear in the number of features, thus making it feasible for practical applications. Moreover, we provide a practical algorithm for the evaluation of the distance, based on Mixed-integer optimization (MIO). We also note that the proposed distance is easily interpretable, thus providing clearer paths to fixing the biases once they have been identified. It also provides guarantees for all subgroups. Finally, we empirically evaluate, compare with other metrics, and demonstrate the above properties of MSD on real-world datasets.