RIDE: An Open Dataset and Benchmark for Train Delay Prediction

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

Subspace-Decomposed JEPAs: Disentangling Progression and Content in Latent World Models

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) learn compact latent world models by predicting future embeddings, but no single coordinate of the latent is designated to encode task progression. We carve the JEPA latent into two orthogonal subspaces with disjoint roles: a low-dimensional progression subspace shaped by a cosine-margin triplet loss, and a high-dimensional content subspace regularised by the existing SIGReg objective of LeWM. We prove that the two anti-collapse forces act on disjoint coordinates, so they compose additively rather than competing on the same dimensions. Our method, SD-JEPA improves over the LeWM baseline on the majority of its control benchmarks at matched compute, and outperforms the strongest non-LeWM JEPA baseline on Push-T; a subspace-ablation falsifier confirms the split is the load-bearing ingredient. Beyond planning, the resulting 1-D angular progression coordinate functions as a scene-aware compass on the latent. It advances with task progress, regresses when the agent backtracks, and under controlled perturbations both spikes and relocalises to a semantically appropriate new task-phase sector, separating the moment of surprise from its meaning in a way that prediction-error scalars cannot. Three quantitative tests back this up: $|Δθ_t|$ outperforms the standard latent-prediction-error surprise at localising semantic events on 40 held-out cube episodes by up to +0.18 pooled AUROC (97.5% per-episode win rate at $\pm 1$-step tolerance); a within-episode linear probe across all four environments (40 episodes per env) shows the 8-dimensional progression subspace (4.2% of the latent) explains 72-95% of task-progress variance..

STEP: Learning STructured Embeddings for Progressive Time Series

We present a novel method for learning interpretable representations of progressive time series, that is, data capturing irreversible state transitions such as degradation or task completion. Our approach uses a self-supervised contrastive objective to learn a low-dimensional latent space whose geometry is itself the interpretation: each observation becomes a point on a manifold anchored between two fixed orthogonal prototype vectors, and a trajectory becomes a path across that manifold. From this structure we read a latent compass, the polar coordinates (θ, r) of the latent vector, in which θ tracks the progression of the underlying state (e.g., from healthy to failed) and r identifies the active mode (e.g., the operating condition), without any proxy labels. We evaluate the approach against the state of the art on diverse domains, including industrial degradation, robotic tasks, and neural activity, validating three key capabilities: (1) end-state prediction, (2) multi-step forecasting, and (3) interpretable phase separation. Our method matches or improves over black-box counterparts on all of these while providing transparency about the underlying mechanisms. A simple linear regressor on top of the latent compass coordinates is competitive with deep architectures, direct quantitative evidence that the underlying state is encoded in a geometrically accessible form.

Decoupling Communication from Policy: Robust MARL under Bandwidth Constraints

Communication enables coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), but many real-world applications, e.g., search-and-rescue with drone swarms, operate under severe bandwidth constraints. Many communication architectures still expose a coupled bottleneck in which a shared latent representation is used for both policy execution and inter-agent communication. Consequently, reducing message size directly limits the policy's latent space, often leading to significant performance degradation. We address this with two contributions. First, we introduce $β$, a normalised per-agent bandwidth budget that unifies sparsity, rounds, and message dimension into a single comparable constraint. Second, we provide SLIM, a minimal architecture that decouples the communication pathway from the policy's latent representation, allowing us to isolate the effect of bandwidth from the effect of policy capacity while benefiting from in-step communication. We evaluate our method on several partially-observable MARL benchmarks, where communication is essential. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance and exhibits scalability and robustness under limited communication, with only marginal degradation as bandwidth is reduced.

A Machine Learning Framework for Turbofan Health Estimation via Inverse Problem Formulation

Estimating the health state of turbofan engines is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem, hindered by sparse sensing and complex nonlinear thermodynamics. Research in this area remains fragmented, with comparisons limited by the use of unrealistic datasets and insufficient exploration of the exploitation of temporal information. This work investigates how to recover component-level health indicators from operational sensor data under realistic degradation and maintenance patterns. To support this study, we introduce a new dataset that incorporates industry-oriented complexities such as maintenance events and usage changes. Using this dataset, we establish an initial benchmark that compares steady-state and nonstationary data-driven models, and Bayesian filters, classic families of methods used to solve this problem. In addition to this benchmark, we introduce self-supervised learning (SSL) approaches that learn latent representations without access to true health labels, a scenario reflective of real-world operational constraints. By comparing the downstream estimation performance of these unsupervised representations against the direct prediction baselines, we establish a practical lower bound on the difficulty of solving this inverse problem. Our results reveal that traditional filters remain strong baselines, while SSL methods reveal the intrinsic complexity of health estimation and highlight the need for more advanced and interpretable inference strategies. For reproducibility, both the generated dataset and the implementation used in this work are made accessible.

Simulation-Driven Railway Delay Prediction: An Imitation Learning Approach

Reliable prediction of train delays is essential for enhancing the robustness and efficiency of railway transportation systems. In this work, we reframe delay forecasting as a stochastic simulation task, modeling state-transition dynamics through imitation learning. We introduce Drift-Corrected Imitation Learning (DCIL), a novel self-supervised algorithm that extends DAgger by incorporating distance-based drift correction, thereby mitigating covariate shift during rollouts without requiring access to an external oracle or adversarial schemes. Our approach synthesizes the dynamical fidelity of event-driven models with the representational capacity of data-driven methods, enabling uncertainty-aware forecasting via Monte Carlo simulation. We evaluate DCIL using a comprehensive real-world dataset from \textsc{Infrabel}, the Belgian railway infrastructure manager, which encompasses over three million train movements. Our results, focused on predictions up to 30 minutes ahead, demonstrate superior predictive performance of DCIL over traditional regression models and behavioral cloning on deep learning architectures, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing the sequential and uncertain nature of delay propagation in large-scale networks.

Binary Split Categorical feature with Mean Absolute Error Criteria in CART

In the context of the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm, the efficient splitting of categorical features using standard criteria like GINI and Entropy is well-established. However, using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) criterion for categorical features has traditionally relied on various numerical encoding methods. This paper demonstrates that unsupervised numerical encoding methods are not viable for the MAE criteria. Furthermore, we present a novel and efficient splitting algorithm that addresses the challenges of handling categorical features with the MAE criterion. Our findings underscore the limitations of existing approaches and offer a promising solution to enhance the handling of categorical data in CART algorithms.

Estimating Conditional Covariance between labels for Multilabel Data

Multilabel data should be analysed for label dependence before applying multilabel models. Independence between multilabel data labels cannot be measured directly from the label values due to their dependence on the set of covariates $\vec{x}$, but can be measured by examining the conditional label covariance using a multivariate Probit model. Unfortunately, the multivariate Probit model provides an estimate of its copula covariance, and so might not be reliable in estimating constant covariance and dependent covariance. In this article, we compare three models (Multivariate Probit, Multivariate Bernoulli and Staged Logit) for estimating the constant and dependent multilabel conditional label covariance. We provide an experiment that allows us to observe each model's measurement of conditional covariance. We found that all models measure constant and dependent covariance equally well, depending on the strength of the covariance, but the models all falsely detect that dependent covariance is present for data where constant covariance is present. Of the three models, the Multivariate Probit model had the lowest error rate.

Flow Models for Unbounded and Geometry-Aware Distributional Reinforcement Learning

We introduce a new architecture for Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL) that models return distributions using normalizing flows. This approach enables flexible, unbounded support for return distributions, in contrast to categorical approaches like C51 that rely on fixed or bounded representations. It also offers richer modeling capacity to capture multi-modality, skewness, and tail behavior than quantile based approaches. Our method is significantly more parameter-efficient than categorical approaches. Standard metrics used to train existing models like KL divergence or Wasserstein distance either are scale insensitive or have biased sample gradients, especially when return supports do not overlap. To address this, we propose a novel surrogate for the Cram\`er distance, that is geometry-aware and computable directly from the return distribution's PDF, avoiding the costly CDF computation. We test our model on the ATARI-5 sub-benchmark and show that our approach outperforms PDF based models while remaining competitive with quantile based methods.

Feature Importance Depends on Properties of the Data: Towards Choosing the Correct Explanations for Your Data and Decision Trees based Models

In order to ensure the reliability of the explanations of machine learning models, it is crucial to establish their advantages and limits and in which case each of these methods outperform. However, the current understanding of when and how each method of explanation can be used is insufficient. To fill this gap, we perform a comprehensive empirical evaluation by synthesizing multiple datasets with the desired properties. Our main objective is to assess the quality of feature importance estimates provided by local explanation methods, which are used to explain predictions made by decision tree-based models. By analyzing the results obtained from synthetic datasets as well as publicly available binary classification datasets, we observe notable disparities in the magnitude and sign of the feature importance estimates generated by these methods. Moreover, we find that these estimates are sensitive to specific properties present in the data. Although some model hyper-parameters do not significantly influence feature importance assignment, it is important to recognize that each method of explanation has limitations in specific contexts. Our assessment highlights these limitations and provides valuable insight into the suitability and reliability of different explanatory methods in various scenarios.