A Hybrid LSTM--Vision Transformer Architecture for Predicting HRRR Forecast Errors

Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena. Previous work demonstrated that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can successfully predict forecast errors in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using mesonet observations, but we believe performance degradation is linked to periods of complex vertical atmospheric evolution. To address this limitation, we develop a hybrid LSTM-Vision Transformer (LSTM-ViT) framework that combines temporal sequence learning from surface observations with atmospheric profiles from the New York State Mesonet profiler network. The LSTM-ViT framework is trained to predict HRRR hourly precipitation, 10 m wind speed, and 2 m temperature forecast errors at individual mesonet stations. Across all three predictors, incorporation of profiler-derived atmospheric structure improves forecast error prediction skill relative to the baseline LSTM architecture, with the largest gains occurring at shorter forecast lead times and during periods of enhanced PBL activity. Improvements are particularly pronounced for precipitation forecast error, where the LSTM-ViT framework achieves approximately a twofold increase in predictive skill relative to the baseline LSTM while better capturing convectively driven error evolution and reducing degradation associated with PBL processes. These results demonstrate that combining temporal sequence learning with vertically informed attention mechanisms provides a physically meaningful pathway for improving forecast error prediction in operational NWP systems. Our research offers forecasters enhanced guidance regarding model bias and forecast confidence.

A Review of Pseudo-Labeling for Computer Vision

Deep neural models have achieved state of the art performance on a wide range of problems in computer science, especially in computer vision. However, deep neural networks often require large datasets of labeled samples to generalize effectively, and an important area of active research is semi-supervised learning, which attempts to instead utilize large quantities of (easily acquired) unlabeled samples. One family of methods in this space is pseudo-labeling, a class of algorithms that use model outputs to assign labels to unlabeled samples which are then used as labeled samples during training. Such assigned labels, called pseudo-labels, are most commonly associated with the field of semi-supervised learning. In this work we explore a broader interpretation of pseudo-labels within both self-supervised and unsupervised methods. By drawing the connection between these areas we identify new directions when advancements in one area would likely benefit others, such as curriculum learning and self-supervised regularization.

Meta Co-Training: Two Views are Better than One

In many practical computer vision scenarios unlabeled data is plentiful, but labels are scarce and difficult to obtain. As a result, semi-supervised learning which leverages unlabeled data to boost the performance of supervised classifiers have received significant attention in recent literature. One major class of semi-supervised algorithms is co-training. In co-training two different models leverage different independent and sufficient "views" of the data to jointly make better predictions. During co-training each model creates pseudo labels on unlabeled points which are used to improve the other model. We show that in the common case when independent views are not available we can construct such views inexpensively using pre-trained models. Co-training on the constructed views yields a performance improvement over any of the individual views we construct and performance comparable with recent approaches in semi-supervised learning, but has some undesirable properties. To alleviate the issues present with co-training we present Meta Co-Training which is an extension of the successful Meta Pseudo Labels approach to multiple views. Our method achieves new state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet-10% with very few training resources, as well as outperforming prior semi-supervised work on several other fine-grained image classification datasets.