Information-Theoretic Requirements for Gradient-Based Task Affinity Estimation in Multi-Task Learning

Multi-task learning shows strikingly inconsistent results -- sometimes joint training helps substantially, sometimes it actively harms performance -- yet the field lacks a principled framework for predicting these outcomes. We identify a fundamental but unstated assumption underlying gradient-based task analysis: tasks must share training instances for gradient conflicts to reveal genuine relationships. When tasks are measured on the same inputs, gradient alignment reflects shared mechanistic structure; when measured on disjoint inputs, any apparent signal conflates task relationships with distributional shift. We discover this sample overlap requirement exhibits a sharp phase transition: below 30% overlap, gradient-task correlations are statistically indistinguishable from noise; above 40%, they reliably recover known biological structure. Comprehensive validation across multiple datasets achieves strong correlations and recovers biological pathway organization. Standard benchmarks systematically violate this requirement -- MoleculeNet operates at <5% overlap, TDC at 8-14% -- far below the threshold where gradient analysis becomes meaningful. This provides the first principled explanation for seven years of inconsistent MTL results.

State Space Models are Effective Sign Language Learners: Exploiting Phonological Compositionality for Vocabulary-Scale Recognition

Sign language recognition suffers from catastrophic scaling failure: models achieving high accuracy on small vocabularies collapse at realistic sizes. Existing architectures treat signs as atomic visual patterns, learning flat representations that cannot exploit the compositional structure of sign languages-systematically organized from discrete phonological parameters (handshape, location, movement, orientation) reused across the vocabulary. We introduce PHONSSM, enforcing phonological decomposition through anatomically-grounded graph attention, explicit factorization into orthogonal subspaces, and prototypical classification enabling few-shot transfer. Using skeleton data alone on the largest ASL dataset ever assembled (5,565 signs), PHONSSM achieves 72.1% on WLASL2000 (+18.4pp over skeleton SOTA), surpassing most RGB methods without video input. Gains are most dramatic in the few-shot regime (+225% relative), and the model transfers zero-shot to ASL Citizen, exceeding supervised RGB baselines. The vocabulary scaling bottleneck is fundamentally a representation learning problem, solvable through compositional inductive biases mirroring linguistic structure.

When Does Context Help? A Systematic Study of Target-Conditional Molecular Property Prediction

We present the first systematic study of when target context helps molecular property prediction, evaluating context conditioning across 10 diverse protein families, 4 fusion architectures, data regimes spanning 67-9,409 training compounds, and both temporal and random evaluation splits. Using NestDrug, a FiLM-based architecture that conditions molecular representations on target identity, we characterize both success and failure modes with three principal findings. First, fusion architecture dominates: FiLM outperforms concatenation by 24.2 percentage points and additive conditioning by 8.6 pp; how you incorporate context matters more than whether you include it. Second, context enables otherwise impossible predictions: on data-scarce CYP3A4 (67 training compounds), multi-task transfer achieves 0.686 AUC where per-target Random Forest collapses to 0.238. Third, context can systematically hurt: distribution mismatch causes 10.2 pp degradation on BACE1; few-shot adaptation consistently underperforms zero-shot. Beyond methodology, we expose fundamental flaws in standard benchmarking: 1-nearest-neighbor Tanimoto achieves 0.991 AUC on DUD-E without any learning, and 50% of actives leak from training data, rendering absolute performance metrics meaningless. Our temporal split evaluation (train up to 2020, test 2021-2024) achieves stable 0.843 AUC with no degradation, providing the first rigorous evidence that context-conditional molecular representations generalize to future chemical space.