Benchmarking the Discovery Engine

The Discovery Engine is a general purpose automated system for scientific discovery, which combines machine learning with state-of-the-art ML interpretability to enable rapid and robust scientific insight across diverse datasets. In this paper, we benchmark the Discovery Engine against five recent peer-reviewed scientific publications applying machine learning across medicine, materials science, social science, and environmental science. In each case, the Discovery Engine matches or exceeds prior predictive performance while also generating deeper, more actionable insights through rich interpretability artefacts. These results demonstrate its potential as a new standard for automated, interpretable scientific modelling that enables complex knowledge discovery from data.

Higher-Order Belief in Incomplete Information MAIDs

Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are probabilistic graphical models which represent strategic interactions between agents. MAIDs are equivalent to extensive form games (EFGs) but have a more compact and informative structure. However, MAIDs cannot, in general, represent settings of incomplete information -- wherein agents have different beliefs about the game being played, and different beliefs about each-other's beliefs. In this paper, we introduce incomplete information MAIDs (II-MAIDs). We define both infinite and finite-depth II-MAIDs and prove an equivalence relation to EFGs with incomplete information and no common prior over types. We prove that II-MAIDs inherit classical equilibria concepts via this equivalence, but note that these solution concepts are often unrealistic in the setting with no common prior because they violate common knowledge of rationality. We define a more realistic solution concept based on recursive best-response. Throughout, we describe an example with a hypothetical AI agent undergoing evaluation to illustrate the applicability of II-MAIDs.