Exploring the impact of social stress on the adaptive dynamics of COVID-19: Typing the behavior of naïve populations faced with epidemics

In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their adaptive dynamics in addressing the spread of infection outbreaks across different regions. This emphasizes the crucial role of cultural characteristics in natural disaster analysis. The theoretical understanding of large-scale epidemics primarily relies on mean-field kinetic models. However, conventional SIR-like models failed to fully explain the observed phenomena at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. These phenomena included the unexpected cessation of exponential growth, the reaching of plateaus, and the occurrence of multi-wave dynamics. In situations where an outbreak of a highly virulent and unfamiliar infection arises, it becomes crucial to respond swiftly at a non-medical level to mitigate the negative socio-economic impact. Here we present a theoretical examination of the first wave of the epidemic based on a simple SIRSS model (SIR with Social Stress). We conduct an analysis of the socio-cultural features of na\"ive population behaviors across various countries worldwide. The unique characteristics of each country/territory are encapsulated in only a few constants within our model, derived from the fitted COVID-19 statistics. These constants also reflect the societal response dynamics to the external stress factor, underscoring the importance of studying the mutual behavior of humanity and natural factors during global social disasters. Based on these distinctive characteristics of specific regions, local authorities can optimize their strategies to effectively combat epidemics until vaccines are developed.

Astrocytes mediate analogous memory in a multi-layer neuron-astrocytic network

Modeling the neuronal processes underlying short-term working memory remains the focus of many theoretical studies in neuroscience. Here we propose a mathematical model of spiking neuron network (SNN) demonstrating how a piece of information can be maintained as a robust activity pattern for several seconds then completely disappear if no other stimuli come. Such short-term memory traces are preserved due to the activation of astrocytes accompanying the SNN. The astrocytes exhibit calcium transients at a time scale of seconds. These transients further modulate the efficiency of synaptic transmission and, hence, the firing rate of neighboring neurons at diverse timescales through gliotransmitter release. We show how such transients continuously encode frequencies of neuronal discharges and provide robust short-term storage of analogous information. This kind of short-term memory can keep operative information for seconds, then completely forget it to avoid overlapping with forthcoming patterns. The SNN is inter-connected with the astrocytic layer by local inter-cellular diffusive connections. The astrocytes are activated only when the neighboring neurons fire quite synchronously, e.g. when an information pattern is loaded. For illustration, we took greyscale photos of people's faces where the grey level encoded the level of applied current stimulating the neurons. The astrocyte feedback modulates (facilitates) synaptic transmission by varying the frequency of neuronal firing. We show how arbitrary patterns can be loaded, then stored for a certain interval of time, and retrieved if the appropriate clue pattern is applied to the input.