Forecasting the movements of Bitcoin prices: an application of machine learning algorithms

Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are one of the most controversial and complex technological innovations in today's financial system. This study aims to forecast the movements of Bitcoin prices at a high degree of accuracy. To this aim, four different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are applied, namely, the Support Vector Machines (SVM), the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Naive Bayes (NB) and the Random Forest (RF) besides the logistic regression (LR) as a benchmark model. In order to test these algorithms, besides existing continuous dataset, discrete dataset was also created and used. For the evaluations of algorithm performances, the F statistic, accuracy statistic, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Root Absolute Error (RAE) metrics were used. The t test was used to compare the performances of the SVM, ANN, NB and RF with the performance of the LR. Empirical findings reveal that, while the RF has the highest forecasting performance in the continuous dataset, the NB has the lowest. On the other hand, while the ANN has the highest and the NB the lowest performance in the discrete dataset. Furthermore, the discrete dataset improves the overall forecasting performance in all algorithms (models) estimated.

Feature Selection for Forecasting

This work investigates the importance of feature selection for improving the forecasting performance of machine learning algorithms for financial data. Artificial neural networks (ANN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM) networks, as well as linear models were applied for forecasting purposes. The Feature Selection with Annealing (FSA) algorithm was used to select the features from about 1000 possible predictors obtained from 26 technical indicators with specific periods and their lags. In addition to this, the Boruta feature selection algorithm was applied as a baseline feature selection method. The dependent variables consisted of daily logarithmic returns and daily trends of ten financial data sets, including cryptocurrency and different stocks. Experiments indicate that the FSA algorithm increased the performance of ML models regardless of the problem type. The FSA hybrid machine learning models showed better performance in 10 out of 10 data sets for regression and 8 out of 10 data sets for classification. None of the hybrid Boruta models outperformed the hybrid FSA models. However, the BORCNN model performance was comparable to the best model for 4 out of 10 data sets for regression estimates. BOR-LR and BOR-CNN models showed comparable performance with the best hybrid FSA models in 2 out of 10 datasets for classification. FSA was observed to improve the model performance in both better performance metrics as well as a decreased computation time by providing a lower dimensional input feature space.