Obscured but Not Erased: Evaluating Nationality Bias in LLMs via Name-Based Bias Benchmarks

Large Language Models (LLMs) can exhibit latent biases towards specific nationalities even when explicit demographic markers are not present. In this work, we introduce a novel name-based benchmarking approach derived from the Bias Benchmark for QA (BBQ) dataset to investigate the impact of substituting explicit nationality labels with culturally indicative names, a scenario more reflective of real-world LLM applications. Our novel approach examines how this substitution affects both bias magnitude and accuracy across a spectrum of LLMs from industry leaders such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Our experiments show that small models are less accurate and exhibit more bias compared to their larger counterparts. For instance, on our name-based dataset and in the ambiguous context (where the correct choice is not revealed), Claude Haiku exhibited the worst stereotypical bias scores of 9%, compared to only 3.5% for its larger counterpart, Claude Sonnet, where the latter also outperformed it by 117.7% in accuracy. Additionally, we find that small models retain a larger portion of existing errors in these ambiguous contexts. For example, after substituting names for explicit nationality references, GPT-4o retains 68% of the error rate versus 76% for GPT-4o-mini, with similar findings for other model providers, in the ambiguous context. Our research highlights the stubborn resilience of biases in LLMs, underscoring their profound implications for the development and deployment of AI systems in diverse, global contexts.

Modelling customer lifetime-value in the retail banking industry

Understanding customer lifetime value is key to nurturing long-term customer relationships, however, estimating it is far from straightforward. In the retail banking industry, commonly used approaches rely on simple heuristics and do not take advantage of the high predictive ability of modern machine learning techniques. We present a general framework for modelling customer lifetime value which may be applied to industries with long-lasting contractual and product-centric customer relationships, of which retail banking is an example. This framework is novel in facilitating CLV predictions over arbitrary time horizons and product-based propensity models. We also detail an implementation of this model which is currently in production at a large UK lender. In testing, we estimate an 43% improvement in out-of-time CLV prediction error relative to a popular baseline approach. Propensity models derived from our CLV model have been used to support customer contact marketing campaigns. In testing, we saw that the top 10% of customers ranked by their propensity to take up investment products were 3.2 times more likely to take up an investment product in the next year than a customer chosen at random.