Encoding Temporal Statistical-space Priors via Augmented Representation

Modeling time series data remains a pervasive issue as the temporal dimension is inherent to numerous domains. Despite significant strides in time series forecasting, high noise-to-signal ratio, non-normality, non-stationarity, and lack of data continue challenging practitioners. In response, we leverage a simple representation augmentation technique to overcome these challenges. Our augmented representation acts as a statistical-space prior encoded at each time step. In response, we name our method Statistical-space Augmented Representation (SSAR). The underlying high-dimensional data-generating process inspires our representation augmentation. We rigorously examine the empirical generalization performance on two data sets with two downstream temporal learning algorithms. Our approach significantly beats all five up-to-date baselines. Moreover, the highly modular nature of our approach can easily be applied to various settings. Lastly, fully-fledged theoretical perspectives are available throughout the writing for a clear and rigorous understanding.

Curriculum Learning and Imitation Learning for Model-free Control on Financial Time-series

Curriculum learning and imitation learning have been leveraged extensively in the robotics domain. However, minimal research has been done on leveraging these ideas on control tasks over highly stochastic time-series data. Here, we theoretically and empirically explore these approaches in a representative control task over complex time-series data. We implement the fundamental ideas of curriculum learning via data augmentation, while imitation learning is implemented via policy distillation from an oracle. Our findings reveal that curriculum learning should be considered a novel direction in improving control-task performance over complex time-series. Our ample random-seed out-sample empirics and ablation studies are highly encouraging for curriculum learning for time-series control. These findings are especially encouraging as we tune all overlapping hyperparameters on the baseline -- giving an advantage to the baseline. On the other hand, we find that imitation learning should be used with caution.