How reliable are LLMs when it comes to playing dice?

We investigate the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of large language models through a controlled benchmarking study on discrete probability problems. We constructed two datasets, respectively a set of standard exercises and a set of counterintuitive exercises, designed to trigger heuristic reasoning, and evaluated 8 state-of-the-art models, each tested with and without Chain-of-Thought prompting. Models achieve an average accuracy of 0.96 on standard problems but only 0.59 on counterintuitive ones. We further provide empirical evidence of token bias: performance drops by over 20% when canonical formulations are replaced by disguised variants. Embedding misleading suggestions in the prompt reduces performance by up to 34%, with no model proving immune. Taken together, the reported findings suggest that current LLMs are not yet genuine probabilistic reasoners, despite their success in advanced mathematical problems.

node2vec or triangle-biased random walks: stationarity, regularity & recurrence

The node2vec random walk is a non-Markovian random walk on the vertex set of a graph, widely used for network embedding and exploration. This random walk model is defined in terms of three parameters which control the probability of, respectively, backtracking moves, moves within triangles, and moves to the remaining neighboring nodes. From a mathematical standpoint, the node2vec random walk is a nontrivial generalization of the non-backtracking random walk and thus belongs to the class of second-order Markov chains. Despite its widespread use in applications, little is known about its long-run behavior. The goal of this paper is to begin exploring its fundamental properties on arbitrary graphs. To this aim, we show how lifting the node2vec random walk to the state spaces of directed edges and directed wedges yields two distinct Markovian representations which are key for its asymptotic analysis. Using these representations, we find mild sufficient conditions on the underlying finite or infinite graph to guarantee ergodicity, reversibility, recurrence and characterization of the invariant measure. As we discuss, the behavior of the node2vec random walk is drastically different compared to the non-backtracking random walk. While the latter simplifies on arbitrary graphs when using its natural edge Markovian representation thanks to bistochasticity, the former simplifies on regular graphs when using its natural wedge Markovian representation. Remarkably, this representation reveals that a graph is regular if and only if a certain weighted Eulerianity condition holds.