MATNet: Multi-Level Fusion and Self-Attention Transformer-Based Model for Multivariate Multi-Step Day-Ahead PV Generation Forecasting

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into modern power systems has become increasingly important due to climate change and macroeconomic and geopolitical instability. Among the RES, photovoltaic (PV) energy is rapidly emerging as one of the world's most promising. However, its widespread adoption poses challenges related to its inherently uncertain nature that can lead to imbalances in the electrical system. Therefore, accurate forecasting of PV production can help resolve these uncertainties and facilitate the integration of PV into modern power systems. Currently, PV forecasting methods can be divided into two main categories: physics-based and data-based strategies, with AI-based models providing state-of-the-art performance in PV power forecasting. However, while these AI-based models can capture complex patterns and relationships in the data, they ignore the underlying physical prior knowledge of the phenomenon. Therefore, we propose MATNet, a novel self-attention transformer-based architecture for multivariate multi-step day-ahead PV power generation forecasting. It consists of a hybrid approach that combines the AI paradigm with the prior physical knowledge of PV power generation of physics-based methods. The model is fed with historical PV data and historical and forecast weather data through a multi-level joint fusion approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated using the Ausgrid benchmark dataset with different regression performance metrics. The results show that our proposed architecture significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods with an RMSE equal to 0.0460. These findings demonstrate the potential of MATNet in improving forecasting accuracy and suggest that it could be a promising solution to facilitate the integration of PV energy into the power grid.