Population-Scale Network Embeddings Expose Educational Divides in Network Structure Related to Right-Wing Populist Voting

Administrative registry data can be used to construct population-scale networks whose ties reflect shared social contexts between persons. With machine learning, such networks can be encoded into numerical representations -- embeddings -- that automatically capture individuals' position within the network. We created embeddings for all persons in the Dutch population from a population-scale network that represents five shared contexts: neighborhood, work, family, household, and school. To assess the informativeness of these embeddings, we used them to predict right-wing populist voting. Embeddings alone predicted right-wing populist voting above chance-level but performed worse than individual characteristics. Combining the best subset of embeddings with individual characteristics only slightly improved predictions. However, after transforming the embeddings to make their dimensions more sparse and orthogonal, we found that one embedding dimension was strongly associated with the outcome. Mapping this dimension back to the population network revealed differences in network structure related to right-wing populist voting between different school ties and achieved education levels. Our study contributes methodologically by demonstrating how population-scale network embeddings can be made interpretable, and substantively by linking structural network differences in education to right-wing populist voting.

Empirical Privacy Evaluations of Generative and Predictive Machine Learning Models -- A review and challenges for practice

Synthetic data generators, when trained using privacy-preserving techniques like differential privacy, promise to produce synthetic data with formal privacy guarantees, facilitating the sharing of sensitive data. However, it is crucial to empirically assess the privacy risks associated with the generated synthetic data before deploying generative technologies. This paper outlines the key concepts and assumptions underlying empirical privacy evaluation in machine learning-based generative and predictive models. Then, this paper explores the practical challenges for privacy evaluations of generative models for use cases with millions of training records, such as data from statistical agencies and healthcare providers. Our findings indicate that methods designed to verify the correct operation of the training algorithm are effective for large datasets, but they often assume an adversary that is unrealistic in many scenarios. Based on the findings, we highlight a crucial trade-off between the computational feasibility of the evaluation and the level of realism of the assumed threat model. Finally, we conclude with ideas and suggestions for future research.