Effects of Social Interactions in Self-Organising Railway Traffic Management

Recent research is exploring self-organised traffic management as a solution for scaling to complex real-world networks. In such a system, trains predict their neighbourhood, produce traffic plan hypotheses, and agree via consensus with neighbours on a future traffic plan to be implemented. This paper investigates a structural parameter within this pipeline: the predictive neighbourhood horizon. The horizon is used by trains to identify future potential conflicts with neighbours, and to establish the local interaction topology, that is, the subset of trains to negotiate with. As the primary design variable, the horizon directly determines the size and density of the social interaction graph, whereas its impact on the complexity of local sub-problems and the distributed consensus dynamics represents a trade-off to be explored. Through a closed-loop simulation framework the study evaluates how variations of the horizon impact the overall decentralised coordination process, from initial conflict detection to distributed schedule consensus. The analysis focuses on investigating the potential trade-off introduced by the horizon choice: balancing local tractability and computational responsiveness with the need for global schedule coherence and feasibility in safety-critical environments. Contrary to intuition, our empirical results indicate that the short time horizons suffice, while long values compromise local tractability and computational responsiveness with no gain in global schedule optimality.