Ridge Regression for Manifold-valued Time-Series with Application to Meteorological Forecast

We propose a natural intrinsic extension of the ridge regression from Euclidean spaces to general manifolds, which relies on Riemannian least-squares fitting, empirical covariance, and Mahalanobis distance. We utilize it for time-series prediction and apply the approach to forecast hurricane tracks and their wind speeds.

Sasaki Metric for Spline Models of Manifold-Valued Trajectories

We propose a generic spatiotemporal framework to analyze manifold-valued measurements, which allows for employing an intrinsic and computationally efficient Riemannian hierarchical model. Particularly, utilizing regression, we represent discrete trajectories in a Riemannian manifold by composite B\' ezier splines, propose a natural metric induced by the Sasaki metric to compare the trajectories, and estimate average trajectories as group-wise trends. We evaluate our framework in comparison to state-of-the-art methods within qualitative and quantitative experiments on hurricane tracks. Notably, our results demonstrate the superiority of spline-based approaches for an intensity classification of the tracks.