Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia

Childhood asthma is a common illness exacerbated by air pollution as well as meteorological and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. Modeling asthma exacerbation (AE) in large spatiotemporal datasets requires disentangling impacts from multiple contributors. In this case study, we compared three techniques that balance predictive power with interpretability to predict AE in Hampton Roads, a coastal Virginia region comprising 7 cities and over 1.5 million people. After collating ambient air pollution measurements, weather data, and measures of neighborhood opportunity, we modeled zip code-level acute AE visits to a regional children's hospital and affiliated providers from 2018-2023. Generalized linear models (GLM) provided a baseline while neural networks (NN) served as a maximally predictive target. To bridge between statistical models and deep learning, we developed a framework based on sparse dictionary learning to identify and interpret parsimonious nonlinear interacting equations. After comparing each model's predictive performance, we estimated relative risks for AE due to input exposure variables and found consensus across frameworks. Our work links statistical and interpretable machine learning models to highlight possible synergistic interactions influencing AE, and may enable future studies to guide public health interventions in coastal Virginia.

Conceptual Logical Foundations of Artificial Social Intelligence

What makes a society possible at all? How is coordination and cooperation in social activity possible? What is the minimal mental architecture of a social agent? How is the information about the state of the world related to the agents intentions? How are the intentions of agents related? What role does communication play in this coordination process? This essay explores the conceptual and logical foundations of artificial social intelligence in the context of a society of multiple agents that communicate and cooperate to achieve some end. An attempt is made to provide an introduction to some of the key concepts, their formal definitions and their interrelationships. These include the notion of a changing social world of multiple agents. The logic of social intelligence goes beyond classical logic by linking information with strategic thought. A minimal architecture of social agents is presented. The agents have different dynamically changing, possible choices and abilities. The agents also have uncertainty, lacking perfect information about their physical state as well as their dynamic social state. The social state of an agent includes the intentional state of that agent, as well as, that agent's representation of the intentional states of other agents. Furthermore, it includes the evaluations agents make of their physical and social condition. Communication, semantic and pragmatic meaning and their relationship to intention and information states are investigated. The logic of agent abilities and intentions are motivated and formalized. The entropy of group strategic states is defined.

A Category Theory of Communication Theory

A theory of how agents can come to understand a language is presented. If understanding a sentence $\alpha$ is to associate an operator with $\alpha$ that transforms the representational state of the agent as intended by the sender, then coming to know a language involves coming to know the operators that correspond to the meaning of any sentence. This involves a higher order operator that operates on the possible transformations that operate on the representational capacity of the agent. We formalize these constructs using concepts and diagrams analogous to category theory.

On the complexity of learning a language: An improvement of Block's algorithm

Language learning is thought to be a highly complex process. One of the hurdles in learning a language is to learn the rules of syntax of the language. Rules of syntax are often ordered in that before one rule can applied one must apply another. It has been thought that to learn the order of n rules one must go through all n! permutations. Thus to learn the order of 27 rules would require 27! steps or 1.08889x10^{28} steps. This number is much greater than the number of seconds since the beginning of the universe! In an insightful analysis the linguist Block ([Block 86], pp. 62-63, p.238) showed that with the assumption of transitivity this vast number of learning steps reduces to a mere 377 steps. We present a mathematical analysis of the complexity of Block's algorithm. The algorithm has a complexity of order n^2 given n rules. In addition, we improve Block's results exponentially, by introducing an algorithm that has complexity of order less than n log n.