Dynamics-Informed Deep Learning for Predicting Extreme Events

Predicting extreme events in high-dimensional chaotic dynamical systems remains a fundamental challenge, as such events are rare, intermittent, and arise from transient dynamical mechanisms that are difficult to infer from limited observations. Accordingly, real-time forecasting calls for precursors that encode the mechanisms driving extremes, rather than relying solely on statistical associations. We propose a fully data-driven framework for long-lead prediction of extreme events that constructs interpretable, mechanism-aware precursors by explicitly tracking transient instabilities preceding event onset. The approach leverages a reduced-order formulation to compute finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE)-like precursors directly from state snapshots, without requiring knowledge of the governing equations. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of classical FTLE computation, instability growth is evaluated in an adaptively evolving low-dimensional subspace spanned by Optimal Time-Dependent (OTD) modes, enabling efficient identification of transiently amplifying directions. These precursors are then provided as input to a Transformer-based model, enabling forecast of extreme event observables. We demonstrate the framework on Kolmogorov flow, a canonical model of intermittent turbulence. The results show that explicitly encoding transient instability mechanisms substantially extends practical prediction horizons compared to baseline observable-based approaches.

Multifidelity digital twin for real-time monitoring of structural dynamics in aquaculture net cages

As the global population grows and climate change intensifies, sustainable food production is critical. Marine aquaculture offers a viable solution, providing a sustainable protein source. However, the industry's expansion requires novel technologies for remote management and autonomous operations. Digital twin technology can advance the aquaculture industry, but its adoption has been limited. Fish net cages, which are flexible floating structures, are critical yet vulnerable components of aquaculture farms. Exposed to harsh and dynamic marine environments, the cages experience significant loads and risk damage, leading to fish escapes, environmental impacts, and financial losses. We propose a multifidelity surrogate modeling framework for integration into a digital twin for real-time monitoring of aquaculture net cage structural dynamics under stochastic marine conditions. Central to this framework is the nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process method, which learns complex, nonlinear cross-correlations between models of varying fidelity. It combines low-fidelity simulation data with a small set of high-fidelity field sensor measurements, which offer the real dynamics but are costly and spatially sparse. Validated at the SINTEF ACE fish farm in Norway, our digital twin receives online metocean data and accurately predicts net cage displacements and mooring line loads, aligning closely with field measurements. The proposed framework is beneficial where application-specific data are scarce, offering rapid predictions and real-time system representation. The developed digital twin prevents potential damages by assessing structural integrity and facilitates remote operations with unmanned underwater vehicles. Our work also compares GP and GCNs for predicting net cage deformation, highlighting the latter's effectiveness in complex structural applications.

Multifidelity surrogate modeling, NARGP, digital twin, aquaculture net cage, real-time monitoring, graph convolutional networks

As the global population grows and climate change intensifies, sustainable food production is critical. Marine aquaculture offers a viable solution, providing a sustainable protein source. However, the industry's expansion requires novel technologies for remote management and autonomous operations. Digital twin technology can advance the aquaculture industry, but its adoption has been limited. Fish net cages, which are flexible floating structures, are critical yet vulnerable components of aquaculture farms. Exposed to harsh and dynamic marine environments, the cages experience significant loads and risk damage, leading to fish escapes, environmental impacts, and financial losses. We propose a multifidelity surrogate modeling framework for integration into a digital twin for real-time monitoring of aquaculture net cage structural dynamics under stochastic marine conditions. Central to this framework is the nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process method, which learns complex, nonlinear cross-correlations between models of varying fidelity. It combines low-fidelity simulation data with a small set of high-fidelity field sensor measurements, which offer the real dynamics but are costly and spatially sparse. Validated at the SINTEF ACE fish farm in Norway, our digital twin receives online metocean data and accurately predicts net cage displacements and mooring line loads, aligning closely with field measurements. The proposed framework is beneficial where application-specific data are scarce, offering rapid predictions and real-time system representation. The developed digital twin prevents potential damages by assessing structural integrity and facilitates remote operations with unmanned underwater vehicles. Our work also compares GP and GCNs for predicting net cage deformation, highlighting the latter's effectiveness in complex structural applications.