Heliophysics Discovery Tools for the 21st Century: Data Science and Machine Learning Structures and Recommendations for 2020-2050

Three main points: 1. Data Science (DS) will be increasingly important to heliophysics; 2. Methods of heliophysics science discovery will continually evolve, requiring the use of learning technologies [e.g., machine learning (ML)] that are applied rigorously and that are capable of supporting discovery; and 3. To grow with the pace of data, technology, and workforce changes, heliophysics requires a new approach to the representation of knowledge.

Multi-Hour Ahead Dst Index Prediction Using Multi-Fidelity Boosted Neural Networks

The Disturbance storm time (Dst) index has been widely used as a proxy for the ring current intensity, and therefore as a measure of geomagnetic activity. It is derived by measurements from four ground magnetometers in the geomagnetic equatorial regions. We present a new model for predicting $Dst$ with a lead time between 1 and 6 hours. The model is first developed using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network that is trained using solar wind parameters. The uncertainty of the $Dst$ model is then estimated by using the ACCRUE method [Camporeale et al. 2021]. Finally, a multi-fidelity boosting method is developed in order to enhance the accuracy of the model and reduce its associated uncertainty. It is shown that the developed model can predict $Dst$ 6 hours ahead with a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 13.54 $\mathrm{nT}$. This is significantly better than the persistence model and a simple GRU model.