ICU Bloodstream Infection Prediction: A Transformer-Based Approach for EHR Analysis

We introduce RatchetEHR, a novel transformer-based framework designed for the predictive analysis of electronic health records (EHR) data in intensive care unit (ICU) settings, with a specific focus on bloodstream infection (BSI) prediction. Leveraging the MIMIC-IV dataset, RatchetEHR demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to other methods, including RNN, LSTM, and XGBoost, particularly due to its advanced handling of sequential and temporal EHR data. A key innovation in RatchetEHR is the integration of the Graph Convolutional Transformer (GCT) component, which significantly enhances the ability to identify hidden structural relationships within EHR data, resulting in more accurate clinical predictions. Through SHAP value analysis, we provide insights into influential features for BSI prediction. RatchetEHR integrates multiple advancements in deep learning which together provide accurate predictions even with a relatively small sample size and highly imbalanced dataset. This study contributes to medical informatics by showcasing the application of advanced AI techniques in healthcare and sets a foundation for further research to optimize these capabilities in EHR data analysis.

Transformer-based Time-to-Event Prediction for Chronic Kidney Disease Deterioration

Deep-learning techniques, particularly the transformer model, have shown great potential in enhancing the prediction performance of longitudinal health records. While previous methods have mainly focused on fixed-time risk prediction, time-to-event prediction (also known as survival analysis) is often more appropriate for clinical scenarios. Here, we present a novel deep-learning architecture we named STRAFE, a generalizable survival analysis transformer-based architecture for electronic health records. The performance of STRAFE was evaluated using a real-world claim dataset of over 130,000 individuals with stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) and was found to outperform other time-to-event prediction algorithms in predicting the exact time of deterioration to stage 5. Additionally, STRAFE was found to outperform binary outcome algorithms in predicting fixed-time risk, possibly due to its ability to train on censored data. We show that STRAFE predictions can improve the positive predictive value of high-risk patients by 3-fold, demonstrating possible usage to improve targeting for intervention programs. Finally, we suggest a novel visualization approach to predictions on a per-patient basis. In conclusion, STRAFE is a cutting-edge time-to-event prediction algorithm that has the potential to enhance risk predictions in large claims datasets.