Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Model

Causal discovery from observational data is pivotal for deciphering complex relationships. Causal Structure Learning (CSL), which focuses on deriving causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data, faces challenges due to vast DAG spaces and data sparsity. The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs), recognized for their causal reasoning capabilities, offers a promising direction to enhance CSL by infusing it with knowledge-based causal inferences. However, existing approaches utilizing LLMs for CSL have encountered issues, including unreliable constraints from imperfect LLM inferences and the computational intensity of full pairwise variable analyses. In response, we introduce the Iterative LLM Supervised CSL (ILS-CSL) framework. ILS-CSL innovatively integrates LLM-based causal inference with CSL in an iterative process, refining the causal DAG using feedback from LLMs. This method not only utilizes LLM resources more efficiently but also generates more robust and high-quality structural constraints compared to previous methodologies. Our comprehensive evaluation across eight real-world datasets demonstrates ILS-CSL's superior performance, setting a new standard in CSL efficacy and showcasing its potential to significantly advance the field of causal discovery. The codes are available at \url{https://github.com/tyMadara/ILS-CSL}.

Mitigating Prior Errors in Causal Structure Learning: Towards LLM driven Prior Knowledge

Causal structure learning, a prominent technique for encoding cause and effect relationships among variables, through Bayesian Networks (BNs). Merely recovering causal structures from real-world observed data lacks precision, while the development of Large Language Models (LLM) is opening a new frontier of causality. LLM presents strong capability in discovering causal relationships between variables with the "text" inputs defining the investigated variables, leading to a potential new hierarchy and new ladder of causality. We aim an critical issue in the emerging topic of LLM based causal structure learning, to tackle erroneous prior causal statements from LLM, which is seldom considered in the current context of expert dominating prior resources. As a pioneer attempt, we propose a BN learning strategy resilient to prior errors without need of human intervention. Focusing on the edge-level prior, we classify the possible prior errors into three types: order-consistent, order-reversed, and irrelevant, and provide their theoretical impact on the Structural Hamming Distance (SHD) under the presumption of sufficient data. Intriguingly, we discover and prove that only the order-reversed error contributes to an increase in a unique acyclic closed structure, defined as a "quasi-circle". Leveraging this insight, a post-hoc strategy is employed to identify the order-reversed prior error by its impact on the increment of "quasi-circles". Through empirical evaluation on both real and synthetic datasets, we demonstrate our strategy's robustness against prior errors. Specifically, we highlight its substantial ability to resist order-reversed errors while maintaining the majority of correct prior knowledge.