TradeVerse: A Longitudinal Benchmark of Political Negotiation in International Trade

LLMs are increasingly being applied to tasks involving institutional and political texts, but existing benchmarks evaluate them on isolated documents or single tasks. In realpolitik, negotiations are longitudinal data, where participating parties can align or argue over multiple iterations and each turn is an outcome of the previous turns, hence, understanding one turn requires tracking everything before it. We introduce TradeVerse, a benchmark built from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) specific trade concerns, where member states challenge one another and exchange arguments over multiple rounds, sometimes for years. We, in TradeVerse, reconstruct minutes of $1170$ meetings, spanning across 5 groups and $89$ product groups and define three tasks: first, the system has to analyze the longitudinal meeting records and predict the harmonized system codes (HS chapters) of the products under discussion in the particular meeting, second, we examine whether the system, upon analyzing the anonymized content of the meeting, can guess the name of the responding country and third, we ask the system to play the role of the responding country and provide the statement for the very last round. All labels are recovered directly from the proceedings, requiring no manual annotation. Our experiments highlight the challenges these tasks pose for current LLMs. To the best of our knowledge, TradeVerseis the first benchmark to investigate potential of LLMs in understanding longitudinal political trade negotiations.

Hybrid Decision Making via Conformal VLM-generated Guidance

Building on recent advances in AI, hybrid decision making (HDM) holds the promise of improving human decision quality and reducing cognitive load. We work in the context of learning to guide (LtG), a recently proposed HDM framework in which the human is always responsible for the final decision: rather than suggesting decisions, in LtG the AI supplies (textual) guidance useful for facilitating decision making. One limiting factor of existing approaches is that their guidance compounds information about all possible outcomes, and as a result it can be difficult to digest. We address this issue by introducing ConfGuide, a novel LtG approach that generates more succinct and targeted guidance. To this end, it employs conformal risk control to select a set of outcomes, ensuring a cap on the false negative rate. We demonstrate our approach on a real-world multi-label medical diagnosis task. Our empirical evaluation highlights the promise of ConfGuide.

Learning To Guide Human Decision Makers With Vision-Language Models

There is increasing interest in developing AIs for assisting human decision-making in high-stakes tasks, such as medical diagnosis, for the purpose of improving decision quality and reducing cognitive strain. Mainstream approaches team up an expert with a machine learning model to which safer decisions are offloaded, thus letting the former focus on cases that demand their attention. his separation of responsibilities setup, however, is inadequate for high-stakes scenarios. On the one hand, the expert may end up over-relying on the machine's decisions due to anchoring bias, thus losing the human oversight that is increasingly being required by regulatory agencies to ensure trustworthy AI. On the other hand, the expert is left entirely unassisted on the (typically hardest) decisions on which the model abstained. As a remedy, we introduce learning to guide (LTG), an alternative framework in which - rather than taking control from the human expert - the machine provides guidance useful for decision making, and the human is entirely responsible for coming up with a decision. In order to ensure guidance is interpretable} and task-specific, we develop SLOG, an approach for turning any vision-language model into a capable generator of textual guidance by leveraging a modicum of human feedback. Our empirical evaluation highlights the promise of \method on a challenging, real-world medical diagnosis task.

Learning to Guide Human Experts via Personalized Large Language Models

In learning to defer, a predictor identifies risky decisions and defers them to a human expert. One key issue with this setup is that the expert may end up over-relying on the machine's decisions, due to anchoring bias. At the same time, whenever the machine chooses the deferral option the expert has to take decisions entirely unassisted. As a remedy, we propose learning to guide (LTG), an alternative framework in which -- rather than suggesting ready-made decisions -- the machine provides guidance useful to guide decision-making, and the human is entirely responsible for coming up with a decision. We also introduce SLOG, an LTG implementation that leverages (a small amount of) human supervision to convert a generic large language model into a module capable of generating textual guidance, and present preliminary but promising results on a medical diagnosis task.