Deep Gaussian Process-based Cost-Aware Batch Bayesian Optimization for Complex Materials Design Campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast, nonlinear design spaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

Misspecification uncertainties in near-deterministic regression

The expected loss is an upper bound to the model generalization error which admits robust PAC-Bayes bounds for learning. However, loss minimization is known to ignore misspecification, where models cannot exactly reproduce observations. This leads to significant underestimates of parameter uncertainties in the large data, or underparameterized, limit. We analyze the generalization error of near-deterministic, misspecified and underparametrized surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show posterior distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergent generalization error and derive an ensemble {ansatz} that respects this constraint, which for linear models incurs minimal overhead. The efficient approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to high dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Parameter uncertainties from misspecification survive in the underparametrized limit, giving accurate prediction and bounding of test errors.

Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov-Smirnov Indicator Functions

It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transforms high-dimensional time series of observables into ranked dynamical modes. Key to a practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables which form a good basis in which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify {\em a priori} and sub-optimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic timescales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Model (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. We apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system, as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of the Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition timescales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known {\em a priori}.